Written By @Hookslide23
My NFL picks for last week took another beating with favorites winning overall … again. I’m in the middle of what is known as a “bad run,” or a “downswing,” or — to use the completely technical term — a “major alcoholic bender.” It’s ok, it’s all part of the game, and it will not last forever.
The problem is, you can’t stay in the game long enough to see random variance swing back in your direction if you don’t have the bankroll, or the bankroll management to sustain short-term losing.
Let’s take a hypothetical scenario: if you knew in advance you were going to lose 12 bets at $100 each, then win your next 14, you would put up with the first 12 losses (even though it cost you $1,200) in order to eventually turn a profit — But you would also need enough money in your bankroll to continue making the next 14 winning bets.
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If you started the season with just $1,200, your first 12 losses would have wiped out your bankroll and you wouldn’t have been able to make the next (winning) bet. Your bankroll needs to be big enough to withstand losing streaks so you can keep your cards in the game and win. You also need to play within your bankroll; having a lot of money means very little if you can’t manage it properly.
Also, if — in this hypothetical scenario — you knew in advance that you were going to lose those first 12 bets, then why did you even make ’em? You knew you were going to lose! You had omniscience and you didn’t use it to your advantage?
It just goes to show that hypothetical scenarios don’t always make a lot of sense, and neither does sports betting, sometimes.
So, how big does your bankroll need to be? The answer is fluid: “how much do you plan to bet?” Some people lay down $10 or $20 per game, others like to wager $100 per game, and significantly more. That’s why we talk about bet sizing, or betting positions.
It’s important, in my system, to keep bet sizing consistent. Just because I have a “good feeling” about an upcoming game, I can’t afford to ramp up my usual $50 bet to $150 unless my edge is overwhelming. Keep bet sizes consistent until you can properly quantify your edge, and it will be easier to protect yourself against losing everything.
I looked at historical money lines, game odds, and results for the 2014, 2015, and 2016 NFL seasons just to see what kind of bankroll the average bettor would need to sustain losing streaks, while still being able to stay in the game. The answer seemed to be roughly 12 to 15 bets (allowing wiggle room for a missed bet here or there).
Now, one thing we know when it comes to sports betting; expect the unexpected. For lower volume players most professionals talk about investing 3-5% of their bankroll per wager. If you’re a bettor that likes more volume, 1-2% is advised. So in other words, if you’re betting $50 per game, you would want a starting bankroll of at least $1,000.
That historical experiment fits with what I have heard from professional sports bettors. That security of knowing each bet is a singular entity in a long-term management plan of hundreds and thousands of bets annually allows bettors to wager with comfort and confidence.
Or, better yet, save up those funds and spend it all on cases of Corona and bags of limes.*
*Sponsored by Corona and the Lime Council
