Written By Billy Attridge
The NFL season continues to bring excitement even when games are not being played; we saw teams making major moves at the trade deadline. This week, we’ll take a look at three match-ups that provide dominant defense, dominant offense, and two teams coming off a bye where injuries could play a major role.
Denver @ Philadelphia Under 43.5 (-115):
BetOnline.Ag opened the total at 44, and we have seen a slight drop off of the key number to 43.5, with some shops trending towards 43. Denver comes into this game off of a tough division loss against the Kansas City Chiefs, and the Eagles are the hottest team in the NFL, off a home drubbing of the 49ers. When we look at this match-up, we have two teams ranked top 15 in defensive efficiency, with Denver having the toughest run defense in the NFL, despite having faced the 8th best rush offenses in the league. This is the Eagles 1st game against a REAL pass rush since the injury to Jason Peters, a huge loss on the offensive line. On the other side of the ball, the Eagles are also strong vs. the run (9th efficient run defense), which is crucial against a Bronco’s team starting Brock Osweiler that would love to get the run game going. While the Broncos offense may get a little jump with the change at QB, I still expect Denver to struggle through the air. This total should continue to fall through the key number of 43.
Los Angeles (Rams) @ New York (Giants) +3.5 (-116):
With both teams coming off their bye week, the market opened this game anywhere from NYG +2.5 to NYG +4, with most shops opening around the latter. We have seen this number drop a little bit, as the home dog has attracted some money. The look ahead line on this game was Los Angeles -3 (-120), and with neither team playing, it was interesting to see a 1-point adjustment off the most important key number in football. Injuries for the Giants could definitely be a reason for this adjustment, as both Justin Pugh (OL, back), and Weston Richburg (Center, concussion) are looking like they will miss this game, further enhancing the Rams advantage on this side of the ball. On the defensive side of the ball, CB Janoris Jenkins has been suspended, the LB core is hurting bad (MLB Goodson, backup MLB Munson, OLB Casillas), and the secondary has multiple 2nd string players going. If these key components cannot go, it may be very hard to make the case for the home underdog Giants this week, and this number should rise again.
Kansas City @ Dallas Cowboys Over 51.5 (-105):
This total opened 48.5 at BetOnline.AG, and has seen a drastic up-tick to the current market price of 51.5. This move is not shocking, as both teams rank Top 5 in offensive efficiency, and in the bottom 3rd in defensive efficiency. Kansas City has faced 5 teams ranking top 15 or better in defensive efficiency, and has still managed to produce one of the most prolific offenses this year, thanks to terrific play-calling by Andy Reid (we’ll forget about that Tyreek Hill duck thrown in the RZ to a back-up tight end Monday night), and MVP-type play at the quarterback position from Alex Smith. Meanwhile, Dallas is 2nd in the league in Explosive Run offense, and is facing the worst explosive rush defense in the league (yes, Elliot is now out, but Dallas should still see success here). This total move is real, as professional bettors see both of these teams very capable of lighting up the scoreboard Sunday afternoon.
Week 10 Vegas Look Ahead Lines courtesy of Westgate Superbook:
Home Spread Away
Cardinals +7 Seahawks
Redskins +1.5 Vikings
Bears -2.5 Packers
Colts +10.5 Steelers
Jaguars -3.5 Chargers
Buccaneers -4.5 Jets
Titans -5 Bengals
Bills +2.5 Saints
Lions -9.5 Browns
Rams -3 (-120) Texans
Falcons -3.5 Cowboys
49ers pk Giants
Broncos +5.5 Patriots
Panthers -9 Dolphins