Written By @AllStaples
“Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.” -Seneca
The above quote was from the Roman philosopher Seneca, not former quarterback Seneca Wallace. Seneca the philosopher was forced by Emperor Nero to commit suicide – he slit his wrists and drank poison – which also means he suffered far worse days than whatever happened to you over the weekend. Bright side, right? Welcome to Bad Beats!
- The Beat: Dolphins at Ravens UNDER 38
The Bad: Ravens 40, Dolphins 0
The Takeaway: The following was required to lose an under bet: Justin Tucker had to kick field goals of 55- and 48-yards. Ryan Mallett – subbing for the injured Joe Flacco – had to throw a 3rd down touchdown pass late in the first half. And, most memorably, the Raven defense had to score two touchdowns in the 4th quarter. Yes, two defensive touchdowns in the 4th quarter including this 50-yard Jimmy Smith interception return for a touchdown which pushed the game over 38. All those things make this a Bad Beat.
One more statistical anomaly to cement this game’s Bad Beat status. Since the beginning of the 2014 NFL regular season, there have been 17 total shutouts. Of those 17 shutouts, only once did a game go over the total – a 2014 contest where the Rams trounced the Raiders 52-0 (going over the total of 43).
Don’t forget to listen to Monday’s NFL Podcast for a look at the Week 9 lines!
- The Beat: Louisiana Tech at Rice +13.5, +13, +12.5, +12
The Bad: Louisiana Tech 42, Rice 28
The Takeaway: The headline of this Bad Beat is easy: “Louisiana Tech shocks Rice with two touchdowns in game’s 59 seconds.” And that alone is enough to qualify as a Bad Beat, but behind the headline, is even worse.
On 4th and 12 from their own 49-yard line and trailing by a score, Owl quarterback Sam Glaesmann threw a 51-yard touchdown pass to Aaron Cephus. The improbable score tied the game at 28 with 4:33 left to play; a Rice bettor was likely feeling pretty good here. That good feeling continued even as Tech drove 75 yards in 3:33 to retake the lead 35-28. However, the underdog is still rock solid. Rice gets the ball back and, following a timeout, does this:
Fun fact: Rice rushed for 247 yards and yet did not win the game, cover the spread or possess the ball longer than Louisiana Tech. That explains the Owls 1-7 record, I guess.
- The Beat: Texas Tech at Oklahoma, OVER 76
The Bad: Oklahoma 49, Texas Tech 27
The Takeaway: Last year, these two teams combined for a whopping 125 points and 1,708 yards – that’s 50 yards shy of one mile of total yards. What could they do for an encore?
To be clear: an under case could be made in two words: Joe Mixon. In case you’d forgotten, last year he ran for 263 yards and two touchdowns. And, oh yeah, he also caught four passes for 114 yards and added three more touchdowns for a total of five touchdowns that day. An incredible performance for a quality human being.
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This year’s game also proved to be a track meet with 76 combined points through three quarters. Two teams which had averaged over 28 points per quarter through the last seven quarters of football went silent in the 4th quarter. ZERO POINTS. But that’s not even the worst part of this beat yet. The Red Raiders were stopped on the Oklahoma 1-yard line with 11:16 left in the 4th quarter, and they never saw the ball again. Oklahoma proceeded to go on a methodical 18-play, 65-yard drive which featured two 3rd down conversions and a 4th down make. The Sooners burned through the rest of the clock and, somehow, this epic drive totaled zero points. Yes, zero points. There’s no video for this one because, well, there were zero points scored for this bad beat to unfold.
That last drive wasn’t even really a drive. It was more of an inevitable march towards a Bad Beat. Yes, if you got a great number and bet this at 75.5 or better before Wednesday of last week, this doesn’t apply.
- The Beat: Washington +½, +1 FIRST HALF versus Dallas
The Bad: Cowboys 14, Redskins 13
The Takeaway: With 2:59 left in the half, Washington was setting up for a 36-yard field goal to extend their lead to 16-7 and, most likely, guaranteeing a first half cover. The kick was blocked and returned to the Washington 2-yard line. Two plays later and Ezekiel Elliott found the end zone putting the Cowboys ahead 14-13. The score held for the rest of the first half.
As the Redskins lined up to take a two-score lead, Washington’s projected win percentage dropped from 71.2 percent all the way down to 43.6 percent going into the half down 14-13. Yes, those types of statistics are always debatable but the play felt incredibly important the moment it happened and seemingly swung the game the Cowboy way. The momentum score going into half is one of the biggest in football; one team runs in on a high, the other dejected.
There’s a blue light special on aisle 7. Oh? Yea, two bad beats for the price of one! If you were a sophisticated bettor and paid attention to the inclement weather rolling in to the Nation’s Capital, your UNDER 50.5, 50, 49.5, 49, 48.5, 48, 47.5, 47, 46.5, 46, or 45.5 wager was literally and figuratively dampened with seconds to go:
See you next week! I’m @AllStaples on Twitter and be sure to use #BTBbadbeat if you uncover any Bad Beats.
