By @Hookslide23
Yes, I’m feeling a bit cocksure after having another winning week with my NFL picks (that’s three of four winning weeks, if you’d like to bow down), and I’m pretty sure I could walk on water right now if I tried — I might be persuaded to actually try it, if you were offering decent odds.
Quick recap: I had the Dolphins money line +135, Texans +105, and the Jets at a whopping +150. The Dolphins got shut out 20-0, the Texans dunked the Titans’ head in the toilet 57-14, and then the Jets gave me several miniature heart attacks because I’m stupid enough to sweat the scores, even though I explicitly told everyone in this column two weeks ago to never, ever, sweat the scores.
The Jets were up 20-10 over the Jaguars going into the fourth quarter, then they puked all over themselves and the box score until the game was tied 20-20 when the clock struck zeros. Make a note of this: overtime is about as much fun as getting a root canal from an inebriated dentist with an expired license when you’ve got money on a game. Did I mention that you should never sweat the scores?
The Jets won on a field goal in overtime, giving me a net profit of 1.55 betting positions for the week, and bringing my season total up to 2.2 positions. Walk on water? Heck, at this point, I’ll attempt a water-based Moonwalk.
But let’s get real for a second. We’re through four weeks right now, and my profits could easily evaporate by the time I write this column next week, or the week after. That’s how this business works. There is no fool-proof method of making consistent profits betting the NFL, and if there was, I would take the millions of dollars that this nice Nigerian Prince sent me last week and parlay it into an early retirement.
It’s a grind, and it hinges not only on being able to identify teams who have a good chance of winning every week, but also on dodging upsets (sorry, Chargers fans), and taking advantage of the best payouts that are being offered on those teams (I spent most of last week’s column talking about “positive expected value” and how to calculate it).
This is why I take a long, hard look in the mirror every week and remind myself of what’s important: “You suck at picking winning teams,” I say to my reflection, and my reflection nods (after making an obscene gesture). Betting games does have a luck variable to a certain extent (the Lions killed me last week on an overturned touchdown, and the Jets saved me this week on a last-minute field goal in overtime), but my strategy is designed to eliminate as much luck as possible — I hope.
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I say all of this because I received a reader question this week (feel free to join in the conversation I’m @Hookslide23 on Twitter) from @Rikes101:
“Can you do a quick break down on Key Numbers for NFL Totals?“
Yes, I can, but I’d rather eat donuts until I yurp, because in my experience, I’ll produce results faster than I would by betting on totals.
There is research indicating the three most common point totals in recent years are 44, 43, 47, 41, and 51. But knowing that is only one-third of your battle. You also need to know what your true odds of predicting the right point total are, and then you also need a good payout on your bet. That payout is everything. Most of sports betting isn’t how accurate your predictions are, it’s how much money you stand to make on your wager.
I’m going to say that again, this time in bold and italic font: Most of sports betting isn’t how accurate your predictions are, it’s how much money you stand to make on your wager.
A relevant side note: every year at the Super Bowl, sports books offer a prop bet on whether the opening coin toss will be heads or tails. You know you only have a 50% chance of being right. And yet, every year, the payout is -110 (91%) on your wager. You will always lose money on this bet over the long haul because the payout on your even-chances coin flip is less than even money.
So 44 total points is the most common total over the last several years. The Jaguars and Steelers play this Sunday and BetOnline.AG currently has the total set at 44 points — but whether you bet the over or the under, the payout they’re offering is -110. If you’re taking that bet, you need to be confident your prediction has at least a 52.38% chance of coming true. Otherwise, the juice demons come out and take your money long-term. Fickle bunch those juice demons.
Personally, this is why I stick to money line wagers. I don’t dabble in totals (although I have, unsuccessfully, in the past), and I don’t play points spreads. It’s hard enough to pick a flat-out winner without going through the agony of watching your team win, but not by enough. I’d rather eat a bowl of Cap’n Crunch without any milk.
Week 5 is going to be a light one. Keep an eye on the Bills, Seahawks, and Packers. I’d take even money or better on the Bills, anything above +120 on the Seahawks, and anything above +115 on the Packers. But remember what my mirror told you: I suck at picking winning teams.
