This week’s edition of Bad Beats was written by Allan Staples prior to the senseless mass shooting in Las Vegas. A tragedy like this resonates so deeply within folks who love Vegas – those who live there and those who travel there with some frequency – because it puts in crystal clear perspective the fragility of our lives. It could have very easily been one of us, someone we know or someone we love. It’s probably not the worst idea to take a moment today and think about those who lost their lives and consider how fortunate we are each and every day.
“I think we consider too much the good luck of the early bird and not enough the bad luck of the early worm.” -Franklin Roosevelt
Beginning with Troy’s upset over LSU at Death Valley (and then trolling them on Twitter), we should have known this was going to be a strange week. Saturday’s college football slate featured the Bad Beats below and Sunday’s NFL games stunned with home losses by the Falcons, Patriots and Cowboys. Thing is, those NFL Beats weren’t bad – those teams deserved to lose and that is, perhaps, what’s most surprising about the NFL in Week 4.
- The Beat: Cowboys at Cardinals OVER 46
The Bad: Cowboys 28, Cardinals 17
The Takeaway: Before we move onto this week, let’s look back to last Monday’s game. Gambling Twitter was ablaze with anger pointed at Bruce Arians for not kicking a field goal to make the Dallas-Arizona game a one score affair. And maybe he should have, maybe not. To me, the Bad Beat occurred much earlier in the game when Arizona had a touchdown called back for holding and missed a chip shot field goal.
The first play of the 2nd quarter found the Cardinals at the Cowboy 10-yard line facing a 3rd and 5. If you’re into advanced stats, Arizona’s expected point total prior to the play was 4. A holding penalty negated the touchdown pushing Palmer and company back another 10 yards. The next play was a Palmer two-yard run (I’m using the word “run” loosely here) which dropped their expected point total to 2.25. The Dawson field goal miss from 36-yards then dropped that total down to -.67.
Did Bruce Arians make the right end-of-game call? No idea. Did the Cardinals fail to execute on two plays which would have pushed the total over? Absolutely.
- The Beat: Coastal Carolina +7.5 at Louisiana Monroe
The Bad: Louisiana Monroe 51, Coastal Carolina 43
The Takeaway: What if I offered you the opportunity to bet on Team A and informed you they would outgain Team B by almost 100 yards and have possession of the ball for almost 34 minutes? Would you take it? What if I also gave you Team A and +7.5 points? More tempting, right? What if I also told you Team A would only be down by 2 points AND have the ball at their own 33-yard line with 20 seconds left in the game? Would you take that bet? Of course you would; I think most of us would.
Until watching this:
Unfortunately, for Chanticleers bettors it wasn’t “over in Monroe” like the announcer lead us to believe.
- The Beat: Vanderbilt +9 at Florida
The Bad: Florida 38, Vanderbilt 24
The Takeaway: Despite their passing game struggles and benching of starter Felipe Franks, the Gators opened 7-point favorites at home against Vanderbilt. The Commodores were 1-25 in their last 26 against Florida and coming off a 59-0 loss to Alabama. The spread ballooned out to 10.5 before settling in around Vanderbilt +9. Dave Mason, of BetOnline.AG, noted that the vast majority of money (67 percent) was on Vandy taking the points. Still, if you were hoping to cash a ticket on the Commodores, you knew this was going to be a dicey proposition.
With 3:20 left in the 4th, the Commodores trimmed the Florida advantage to 31-24 with a Nathan Marcus touchdown. The onside kick failed and the Gators – at midfield – needed a score for the front door cover and It all came down to a 4th and 1 play from the Commodore 39-yard line with 1:49 left to play. The field position here was important – the Gators were too far away to attempt a field goal and too close to punt. So they went for it, knowing a 1st down would seal the victory. A quarterback sneak seemed probable here and the Vandy defense sold out against it. There wasn’t a sneak. Instead, there was this Malik Davis touchdown run which put the game out of reach for Vandy bettors.
- The Beat: 49ers +225 Money Line
The Bad: Cardinals 18, 49ers 15 OT
The Takeaway: The Cardinals were coming off a short week after playing Dallas on Monday night, while the 49ers had been off since falling to the Rams last Thursday. Earlier on Sunday, we had seen two teams in the exact same situation: the Cowboys and Rams (the Rams were money line winners at +215). The Cardinals were an iffy proposition with the dynamic David Johnson, without him, who knows?
The game between the 49ers and Cardinals lasted 220 minutes. If you had the 49ers on the money line, you were either up or tied for 219 of those minutes – that’s three hours and 39 minutes of watching a very live dog try to more than double your money. What’s already forgotten about the game – due to the ageless Larry Fitzgerald’s touchdown catch in overtime – was the opening overtime drive by the 49ers. The drive was a monster; 17 plays covering 73 yards and chewing up more than 7:30 of the new 10 minute overtime period. Luck, also, seemed to favor the 49ers on that drive; they recovered a Carlos Hyde fumble and were the benefactors of a 3rd down pass interference penalty. But the 49ers luck ran out; they have now lost 3 of their 4 games by 3 points or less.
Have a Bad Beat candidate? I’m at @AllStaples on Twitter or tweet using the hashtag #BTBbadbeat to discuss.
