By @Hookslide23
After a profitable two weeks in the NFL, I’ve had my first taste of losing in Week 3. Obviously, I want to give up on football, sports in general, any hope of happiness in life, and ever getting out of bed. In fact, I’m writing this column in a dark room, I haven’t bathed in days, and R.E.M.’s “Everybody Hurts” is playing on repeat. That’s all I’ve got to say this week, best of luck to everyone in Week 4, and I’ll talk to you then.
[takes phone call, mutters a lot of “uh-huh’s,” and “ok’s,”, then hangs up]
Ok, my editors are telling me I have to write more than that, so let’s talk a little more about NFL betting strategy, and I’ll try not to spend the entire column obsessing over the Lions magically pulling off the upset against the Falcons with less than 10 seconds in the game, only to have the final touchdown overturned after review. That single play was the difference between posting my third straight winning week, and where I am now: staring into the Howling Nothingness of the Void.
So, strategy. Let’s talk more about that.
In previous columns, I’ve touched briefly on my basic approach of betting underdogs (i.e., any team offering +110 or better on the money line), provided that those underdog teams have something approaching 50/50 “true odds” of winning. There’s slightly more to it than that, however. What I’m looking for is positive expected value, which is a technical term that you should never, ever utter out loud in a sports bar unless you want to get beat up.
WARNING: there is math involved moving forward, so perhaps we crack open a few beers.
Step 1: determine your team’s actual chance of winning (beer helps here)
Step 2: convert the money line into profit percentage (not difficult, just keep the beer flowing)
Step 3: do math-y stuff to get your expected value (grab me another beer while you’re up)
Here’s the nitty-gritty:
#1 My team’s actual odds
Get this number wrong, and you’ll lose a lot of bets. Did the Lions have a 50% chance of beating the Falcons, or was it more like a 42%? To figure this out, use your intuition, ask a few Lions fans if they agree, watch a highlight reel of the Lions winning games, and then disregard all of that information because it’s useless.
Better to find yourself a good prediction service and go from there.
#2 Money lines as profit percentage
This is actually really easy if you’re betting underdogs. When a money line is positive (+110, +140, +160, etc.), that’s your return on investment. A +110 line is a 110% return on your bet. A +150 line is a 150% return. You can drink a lot more beer on this step, because there’s no real work involved.
If the line is minus (the favorite), take 100 and divide it by the line. A -110 line is 100 divided by 110, or 0.91 (91%) return on your bet. I rarely bet minus (the favorite) money lines, but it’s good to know how just in case.
#3 Expected value on the bet
Definitely get a calculator here — or hire Rainman, I guess — to help calculate your “EV” (expected value) on each game. The formula is:
(True odds x payout) – odds of losing = EV
To use a real example from one of my Week 3 selections, the Redskins, based on my handicap had 49% true odds to beat the Raiders, which means I had a 51% chance of losing. The money line was +140, or 140% return, so my EV formula was:
(.49 x 1.40) – 0.51 = 0.176, or 17.6 percent EV
If this game plays itself out 100 times, and I bet $10 dollars each time, I’m investing $1,000 dollars total. If I win 49 of those games and lose 51 one of them, I’m out $510 dollars on the losses, but up $686 extra on my wins. Of course, I get my $10 dollars back on each of those 49 wins (another $490), so my total return at the end of the day is $1,176 — a 17.6% return on my $1,000 investment.
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There are times when that EV will drop below zero, which is why the “always bet the underdog no matter what” strategy doesn’t work. If the Redskins had 41% true odds to win, the EV would have been less than zero, and I wouldn’t have made the bet.
This is also why “never bet the favorite” isn’t true either. A team offering -110 (91% return) is a “plus EV” bet as long as your true odds of winning are above the breakeven point of 52.38%. Any lower than that, and the -110 line isn’t offering positive value.
Alas, even the most accurate evaluations sometimes fail, especially when you’re up against last-minute overturned touchdowns because omg are the stupid Lions actually cursed or something?!?!
I’m ok. I’ll be ok. Thanks for asking. I’ll be back next week (I hope).
Totals for the week: one win, three losses, down 1.6 betting positions. Totals for the season? Hey, I’m still up 0.65 positions. Let’s hope for a sweep next week!
