Written By Billy Attridge
At the quarter pole of the NFL season we have a much clearer picture of what teams bring to the table in terms of offensive and defensive efficiency. However, the records of teams may not indicate these strengths or weaknesses, therefore allowing us to find value in the betting market.
Here are three NFL Week 5 games to monitor as Sunday approaches:
Buffalo @ Cincinnati -3 (-110):
This line opened -1.5 at BetOnline.AG, and was quickly moved to the key number of 3. With the Bengals having only 1 win this season (the Browns), and the Bills touting a 3-1 record (impressive wins over Denver and Atlanta), this line movement to the casual bettor is a head scratcher. Digging into this game, this move looks very real and is warranted. Buffalo ranks in the bottom half of the league in offensive efficiency, and has been dominating the turnover margin in their games (+6 on the year). Cincinnati suffered from “questionable” offensive play calling in their first two contests (new OC the past two), and have a -5 turnover differential. Despite Buffalo’s strong start, the Bengals seem to have drawn professional money early on in the week and this has a great chance to see hooks pop closer to kick.
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Carolina @ Detroit -2 (-115):
BetOnline.AG opened Detroit a -2.5 point favorite this week, it reached 3, then was bet down to the current price of 2 (some shops are using 2.5, some 1 at the time of post). The Lions are receiving the majority of the tickets thus far (67%), but the line has gravitated towards the short road dog. We have another instance of one team having the fortune of a high positive turnover differential (Lions +9), and another who has struggled protecting the ball and creating turnovers (Panthers -5). The Lions were a team that professional bettors went UNDER at the beginning of the year, and despite a start of 3-1, sharps seem to be reluctant to give Detroit much credit. While Stafford has played very well, this line should continue to trend down.
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Seattle @ Los Angeles Rams Pick’EM (-110):
The Rams opened anywhere from a 1-point favorite to a 2.5-point favorite, depending on the book. The Vegas look-ahead line from last week was Seattle -3, so we have seen anywhere from a 4 to 5.5 point adjustment at the opening price. Since then, the Seahawks have settled in at +1/PK. Seattle came on strong in the 2nd half of the Sunday night game to ensure a comfortable victory, while the Rams, with plenty of professional money backing them, went into Jerry’s World and stole a victory. Los Angeles has faced an incredibly easy slate of passing defenses, outside of the Redskins, who gave them their only loss on the year. Seattle will be without Chris Carson, Cliff Avril, and potentially corner back Jeremy Lane for this contest, which could be significant vs. this Rams offense. Despite the injury situation for Seattle, the early move from LA-2.5 to where the number sits now was a real move.
Week 6 Look Ahead Lines (courtesy of Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas):
HOME SPREAD AWAY
Panthers -3 Eagles
Texans -8.5 Browns
Jets +9.5 Patriots
Falcons -9.5 Dolphins
Saints -3 Lions
Vikings N/A Packers
Ravens -6.5 Bears
Redskins -7 49ers
Jaguars pk Rams
Cardinals -2.5 Buccaneers
Cheifs -2.5 Steelers
Raiders N/A Chargers
Broncos -6 Giants
Titans N/A Colts
