Line Moves: Week 11 NFL Betting

Written by Watt_05

We exit our November bye and are back to attack the NFL Week 11 board.  The 3-6 Titans head south to play their 2nd division game this season, where they’ll face Jacksonville fresh off a 31-point loss to the 49ers.  We’re going to buck one of the lower totals on the card, and focus on an offense primed for a breakout.

460 Jacksonville Jaguars Team Total OVER 23.5 (-107)

The Jaguars were drubbed by the San Francisco 49ers last week.  After the abysmal performance off their bye, Jacksonville has a chance to get back on track offensively against a Titans defense struggling to defend the pass. Despite facing an average schedule of offenses, Tennessee ranks 28th in EPA per dropback and 29th in passing success rate allowed.

Jacksonville wants to be more aggressive

Coaches and players have hinted at being more aggressive and pushing the ball downfield this week. It makes sense, Trevor Lawrence is just 28th in air yards despite receivers that can test a secondary vertically. This is also a step up in class for the Titans secondary having faced the likes of Desmond Ridder, Kenny Pickett, and Baker Mayfield in three consecutive weeks.

Jaguars Offense stepping down in class

Jacksonville faced the Saints on the road, Pittsburgh in a downpour on the highway, and the new look 49ers defense off their bye with a new shiny toy in Chase Young. Now the Jaguars face an average defense that acts as a pass funnel unit. The scary part about that, is the Titans run defense has been gashed the last month. Tennessee is 25th in defensive rush EPA over their last 4 games. The road to success for Jacksonville is through the air, and the Titans will have a tough time matching up with the Jaguars weapons.  This is a “now or never” moment for Lawrence and this offense, which has been consistently inconsistent all season.  

We’ve seen Jacksonville get bet by professionals and the market moved from -6 to -7; more than just your typical one point move as it runs into the second largest key number in the NFL.  The total has bounced back and forth from 39.5 to 40.5, but I envision this continues rising closer to 41 as limits rise.  Buying the Jaguars offense at the floor while a change in aggression is being discussed seems wise. Let’s go OVER 23.5 now, as I expect this to have a chance to reach 24 by kick.

2023-2024 NFL Market Moves Record: (2-5)

2022-2023 NFL Market Moves Record: (13-6-1)

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