Line Moves: Week 9 NFL Betting

Written by Watt_05

While we haven’t achieved the desired results to this point in the season there is plenty of time left. NFL Week 9 presents interesting opportunities especially in the totals market because half the games feature backup quarterbacks. One of those games takes place in Las Vegas, where the Raiders turn to rookie QB Aidan O’Connell and Daniel Jones returns for the Giants.

#469 GIANTS – RAIDERS OVER 37 (-110)

The Giants throw Daniel Jones back into the fire now that he’s medically cleared for contact.  We saw what a rock bottom offense looks like last week but help could be on the way. Both tackles Andrew Thomas and Evan Neal recorded back-to-back practices and it appears Jones will have a chance to perform with key cogs returning along the offensive line.

Middle of the Raiders Defense bit by injury bug

The Raiders are likely without linebacker Divine Diablo for the second straight week as well as Luke Masterton, who suffered a concussion during Monday Night football. Robert Spillane didn’t practice Wednesday with a hand injury and recorded a limited on Thursday.  For a unit that struggles defending running back passes, Saquon Barkley should be a factor out of the backfield.

Mark Davis Cleans House

Las Vegas cleaned house on Tuesday, firing head coach Josh McDaniels, offensive coordinator Mick Lombardi, and benching Jimmy Garoppolo.  QB Coach Bo Hardegree will take over the OC position and play calling, while rookie QB Aidan O’Connell gets his second start under center.  It’s crystal clear that Davante Adams is frustrated with his lack of touches. In O’Connell’s start against the Chargers, Adams saw 13 targets with a concerted effort to get him the ball.  I expect the Raiders to exceed season averages in both wide receiver targets and tempo.  The absence of former Giants DT Leonard Williams who was traded to the Seahawks Monday should help too.

Before Week 8 results, this total was set at 40 for the anticipated QB battle between Tyrod Taylor and Jimmy Garoppolo.  So what has happened since then? Tyrod goes down against the Jets. Both Giants tackles Andrew Thomas and Evan Neal are upgraded to probable and Daniel Jones is announced as the starter. The old Vegas regime is replaced by a quarterback likely to push the ball downfield, with a scheme that HAS to be more pass friendly than the prior one.  Rich Hribar of SharpFootball noted that the Giants and Raiders rank #32 and #31 in scoring points relative to their implied totals this season.  I want to buy both team’s at the bottom of their market. Let’s go OVER 37 and look for positive regression. 

2023-2024 NFL Market Moves Record: (2-4)

2022-2023 NFL Market Moves Record: (13-6-1)

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