Time away makes the heart grow fonder. Our last market moves piece was back in Week 11 and I have a similar team focused investment for NFL Week 16. My hope is that a Raiders team looking to keep their slim playoff hopes alive falls flat and I can deliver more presents Christmas day.
Kansas City Chiefs OVER 2.5 Touchdowns (-160); good to (-182):
From an offensive perspective we saw the Chiefs offense “go” last week against a stingy Patriots defense, scoring 27 points while taking knees in victory from the New England 5 yard line. Patrick Mahomes attacked the weakest part of the Patriots defense, going 28-38 with 300+ pass yards and 2 touchdowns. There were still moments of clunkiness, but scoring TD’s in 3 of their 4 red zone trips is a step in the right direction.
Reid and Mahomes Thrive In This Matchup
Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes survived multiple injuries last week, scheming up looks for Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jerick McKinnon while keeping Mahomes clean. Reid’s offense is very efficient against the Raiders with Mahomes pulling the strings. That duo has owned the silver and black, scoring at least 28 points in their 11 games against them.
Raiders Defensive Metrics Phony?
The Raiders defensive numbers are inflated off two monster performances against the Easton Stick led Chargers offense without Keenan Allen, and Joshua Dobbs final game as a Vikings starter. Now they head to Arrowhead, which has been a house of horrors for them recently. Las Vegas ranks 29th in pressure rate and now face the #1 Pass block win rate offense. Mahomes was 21 for 24 with 2 touchdowns when kept clean in the first meeting this season. The coverages Las Vegas implements should bode well for Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice to find space.
Little has changed from the look-ahead number of Chiefs -10. There has been steady UNDER money from open at 43 with weather concerns. At publishing, the precipitation clears out around 9:00am and returns at 9:00pm. Last week, The Chiefs and Patriots total closed 39.5, with sharper shops shading to the OVER. Now a Raiders team with lesser defense and more offensive punch is added to the equation. Additionally, all signs point to both tackle Kolton Miller and running back Josh Jacobs returning. Just five weeks ago, the Chiefs Total Touchdowns closed 2.5 (-155) against the Eagles defense, who, say what you will, have a far superior defensive line to the Raiders. Let’s bank on Mahomes dominance against the Raiders continuing and go OVER 2.5 (-160) Chiefs Touchdowns.
2023-2024 NFL Market Moves Record: (3-5)
2022-2023 NFL Market Moves Record: (13-6-1)
