The Eagles and their “Brotherly Shove” shined bright Sunday night and pushed our tush to the window cashing our Eagles bet. For NFL Week 8, we are attacking the first half market where the top two drafted 2023 quarterbacks come off a bye looking to expand on success and regroup.
#1255 TEXANS – PANTHERS 1H OVER 21 (-105)
Houston and Carolina return from their bye with the Texans looking to keep momentum after starting 3-3. The Panthers on the other hand, are searching for the win column and an offensive identity. Frank Reich will hand down play-calling duties to offensive coordinator Thomas Brown for the rest of the season. Brown is a Sean McVay disciple, so expect all of the quarterback cheat codes with enhanced play-action and pre-snap motion. It’s nearly impossible to not project both Carolina and Bryce Young improving under Thomas Brown. The Panthers are 30th in offensive efficiency and that comes against a Top 12 schedule of opposing defenses. Houston is a bottom third NFL defense and their lead corner Derek Stingley Jr remains out with a hamstring injury.
Are you for real Bobby Slowik?!
Houston heads into Sunday 6th EPA per pass and 11th in overall offensive efficiency. That’s incredible considering CJ Stroud and the Texans have faced the second toughest schedule of defenses through 7 weeks. Not only that, Houston has done it with an injury riddled offensive line, a rookie QB, first time OC, and a below average WR group. Tank Dell returns from his concussion, and with the job Bobby Slowik is doing, I envision the Texans exit the bye with multiple wrinkles.
Houston operates at the 4th fastest first half pace in the league and there are whispers of Carolina going a touch quicker too. The Panthers defense is dead last in efficiency and still dealing with injuries. It will be the easiest unit the Texans offense has played to date. I expect Houston having early success with a balanced attack.
Texans – Panthers Market Analysis
The look-ahead line on the full game total was 42, and that’s exactly where it re-opened this past Sunday. Now remember, neither team played Week 7, so there wasn’t new data points or perceptions influencing the market. We saw a group bet this out to 43.5 Monday morning, and I do not believe we’ll ever get to the key of 44. Through 8 weeks, first half scoring has exceeded expectation at a higher rate than full games. Let’s go OVER 21 (-105) or better in the first half.
2023-2024 NFL Market Moves Record: (2-3)
2022-2023 NFL Market Moves Record: (13-6-1)