NFL Week 7 Game On The Move
Similar to the “No Days Off” gentlemen of Bet The Board, we passed last week but make a triumphant return for NFL Week 7. The NFC South division feels like a battle of the toughest smurf. That has led to one of the most wide open divisions in the league.
Indianapolis treks to Nashville with revenge and first place on their mind with a healthier team. The question that looms, is will the Titans continue defying the odds and own Frank Reich and the Colts again in 2022? Or will Matt Ryan followup his solid performance against a vulnerable Titans secondary as the Colts offense trends upwards?
#455 Indianapolis Colts +3 (-120/-125)
Indianapolis was installed 2.5-point underdogs to Tennessee on the look ahead line. Sunday night and into Monday morning, the Titans were bet out to -3, with multiple shops reaching soft 3.5. Since that point, nothing but Colts money both on and off the screen has entered the market.
Season long metrics will not do the Colts offense justice. Indianapolis has tinkered with different offensive line combinations, and seemingly have the five they want following the Jaguars game. Michael Pittman is a legitimate WR1, and we are starting to see rookie Alec Pierce emerge. Rookie TE Jelani Woods has also caught the eye of Matt Ryan, and at 6’7 is a real red zone threat.
The Colts made it a priority to attack opponent weakness during their mini bye. Sure enough against Jacksonville, Frank Reich and Matt Ryan threw quicker passes and went no-huddle for most of the game to help negate the Jaguars pass rush. With Nyheim Hines and Jonathon Taylor trending in the right direction, the Colts offense looks healthy. Now, Tennessee’s defense is stout against the run but has been abysmal through the air. The Titans defense is 29th in schedule adjusted pass efficiency and dead last in EPA per drop back after stripping out turnovers.
The Titans Continue Doing it with Smoke and Mirrors
Tennessee enters off the bye and Mike Vrabel has been nails with extra time. But the Titans resume is one of the least impressive in the NFL despite touting a winning record. Tennessee has lost the yards per play battle in 4 of 5 games while playing a below average schedule. Their offensive line has been bitten by the injury bug and Tennessee leads the NFL in players on IR with 12 currently. Linebackers Zach Cunningham and Joe Jones appear doubtful and Ola Adeniyi was placed on IR Monday.
My respect for Mike Vrabel grows each week as the Titans find ways to win despite horrific injury luck and lackluster talent on offense. Professional bettors have been spurned many times backing Indianapolis and fading Tennessee recently, but it’s time to get on the horse again.
The Math Doesn’t Add Up
Indianapolis closed -4 at home against Tennessee Week 4. The Colts out-gained Tennessee by 120+ yards and won the yards per play battle by 1.1. Unfortunately, Indianapolis was -3 in turnover margin. Defensive leader Shaquille Leonard left in the first quarter with a concussion and broken nose. All indications are Leonard will play this week.
Colts +3 flat isn’t widely available right now so I encourage doing one of two things (or both). With the total sitting as low as 41.5, buying to the key of 3 for -120/-125 is advised because I believe we are headed towards PICK. Indianapolis also makes for a fantastic advantage teaser leg.
NFL Week 8 Look Ahead Lines
Tampa Bay -3 vs Baltimore (TNF)
Jacksonville -3 vs Denver
Dallas -10 vs Chicago
New Orleans -1 vs Las Vegas
Atlanta -6.5 vs Carolina
Philadelphia -10.5 vs Pittsburgh
Miami -3 at Detroit
Minnesota -6 vs Arizona
New England -1.5 at New York Jets
Tennessee -3.5 at Houston
Seattle -1.5 vs New York Giants
Indianapolis -6 vs Washington
Los Angeles Rams -2.5 vs San Francisco
Buffalo -8.5 vs Green Bay (SNF)
Cincinnati -2.5 at Cleveland (MNF)