NFL Week 5 Games on the Move
Identifying value last week was difficult. After sports books reported their first losing NFL week this season, I felt vindicated we did not force action. That changes for NFL Week 5 as I uncover two positions that will move before kickoff Sunday.
The first game takes place in New Orleans, as Geno Smith and the Seahawks are on the road for the third time in four weeks. Our second investment focuses on Kevin O’Connell and the Minnesota Vikings as they continue their solid offensive effort dropping down in class against a Bears defense with injuries in the secondary.
#454 New Orleans Saints -5
Seattle’s offensive efficiency metrics appear impressive but digging deeper provides a clear vision as to what they are. The Seahawks hang 48 on the Lions, the worst defense metrically since the 2019 Dolphins. Seattle scored 20 on Atlanta in the first half and surprised Denver out of the gate Week 1. But Seattle’s offense scored 3 points in the second half against Atlanta, 0 points versus San Francisco, and 0 points in the second half against Denver.
Seattle has more periods of inept offensive football than they do efficient. Now the Seahawks face a Top 10 defense in New Orleans who desperately needs to avoid starting 1-4. Remember, the Saints were a “buy-on” team this off-season.
Saints Injury Problems
The Saints will have the services of Alvin Kamara and Andrus Peat this week. Andy Dalton proved the drop-off in production from Jameis Winston is minimal. New Orleans is facing the weakest defensive opponent yet with Seattle ranking 31st in schedule adjusted efficiency. The Seahawks secondary is also dead last in drop-back EPA.
The first move came Monday morning when a respected group laid 4. My number suggests 5 still presents value as players get upgraded for the Saints. The matchup on both sides of the ball is excellent and anything under 6 should be considered solid value in a buy-low situation on New Orleans.
#462 Minnesota Vikings Team Total OVER 24.5
Pro bettors are using the Vikings as a key in teasers this week. A respected group is responsible for the OVER going from 42.5 to 44. Most times ancillary markets are forgotten about or don’t move quickly despite correlation.
Minnesota has played the defenses of Green Bay, Philadelphia, and New Orleans. Now the Vikings battle a Bears squad that is shorthanded in the secondary for another week. The difference this time is unlike the Giants, Minnesota is playing in a dome with a receiver group capable of getting open.
Minnesota’s offensive line ranks Top 7 in both Pass and Run Block Win Rate. The Vikings have increased their play rate and are 3rd in overall pace. Bears lead corner Jaylon Johnson is out again and his backup Jaylon Jones has been struck with an illness. Chicago’s defense has faced San Francisco (in the mud with Trey Lance), Green Bay (run heavy script), Houston and New York. The Bears have yet to see anything close to what they will Sunday with Justin Jefferson, Adam Theilen, Irv Smith Jr., and a dose of Dalvin Cook that heads a rush attack that ranks 6th in success rate.
NFL Week 6 Look Ahead Lines
Washington -1 at Chicago
Tampa Bay -6.5 at Pittsburgh
Cincinnati -1 at New Orleans
Indianapolis -2.5 vs Jacksonville
Cleveland -3.5 vs New England
Green Bay -9.5 vs New York Jets
Baltimore -6 at New York Giants
Miami -1.5 vs Minnesota
San Francisco -6.5 at Atlanta
Los Angeles Rams -9.5 vs Carolina
Arizona -2.5 at Seattle
Kansas City PICK’em vs Buffalo
Philadelphia -6 vs Dallas
Los Angeles Chargers -4.5 vs Denver