NFL Week 9 Team to Buy
The Colts let us down last time we met for what feels like the thousandth time under Frank Reich. Weather prevented us from publishing a total we keyed on last week and that turned out to be a great decision. I respect Bet The Board readers too much to force something that will not outrun the juice long term. The NFL Week 9 board is tight but I have identified an edge in the derivative market that yields two bets. We have the opportunity to back an undervalued offense because of injury but has proven to be elite when healthy.
#455 Miami Dolphins TEAM TOTAL Over 24.5 (-106) and TOTAL TOUCHDOWNS Over 2.5 (-160)
The total opened 44 and immediately took professional money OVER reaching 45.5. When weather looked possible early in the week it caused a dip below the open to 43.5. Once that concern was alleviated, another buy order pushed this back 45.5. Books are praying this doesn’t land 44, the most important key number for NFL totals.
Tua Tagovailoa Silencing Critics
It is rare to have an offense as explosive as Miami and a cast of big names and still be undervalued in the betting market. That is what we have with the Dolphins for now. Let’s start with Tua, whose #1 in adjusted EPA per play and #2 in completion percentage over expectation. Miami is 5th in schedule adjusted offensive efficiency despite playing 10 of 32 quarters without Tua. The Dolphins have done this against the 9th toughest schedule of defenses. Miami bolsters its running game with the addition of Jeff Wilson Jr. reuniting him with Raheem Mostert. Since Wilson is familiar with Mike McDaniel’s system it’s plug and play. Miami’s offense becomes the fastest in football and it’s poised to feast in Chicago.
Bears Defense to Hibernate before Winter
The Bears sent defensive end Robert Quinn to Philadelphia last week and traded Roquan Smith to Baltimore Wednesday. Chicago has not been good defensively to begin with ranking 26th in schedule adjusted efficiency. The best offenses the Bears have played are Minnesota Week 5 (allowed 29, including 21 in the first 20 minutes), and Dallas last week who scored 42 points averaging 7.8 yards per play. There have been concerning quotes from starting corner Jaylon Johnson, who voiced his displeasure when Smith had been sent packing. It’s worth noting that both Eddie Jackson and Kyler Gordon should play Sunday but neither has recorded a full practice this week with hip injuries leading us to believe neither is 100%.
Tua Tagovailoa makes his third start since returning from a concussion and the Dolphins made it very clear they are aiming for a Super Bowl by acquiring Bradley Chubb and Jeff Wilson Jr. Miami has a Top 5 offense trending up against a bottom third of the league defense that lost its leading tackler and two captains in as many weeks. Attacking the Dolphins team total OVER 24.5 and their Touchdown prop OVER 2.5 is where my money is invested.
NFL Week 10 Look Ahead Lines
Atlanta -1.5 at Carolina
Tampa Bay -2.5 vs Seattle
Kansas City -9.5 vs Jacksonville
New York Giants -6 vs Houston
New Orleans -2.5 at Pittsburgh
Chicago -1.5 vs Detroit
Buffalo -9.5 vs Minnesota
Tennessee -2 vs Denver
Las Vegas -3.5 vs Indianapolis
Los Angeles Rams -3 vs Arizona
Dallas -3 at Green Bay
San Francisco -4 vs Los Angeles Chargers
Philadelphia -10.5 vs Washington
BYE: Baltimore, Cincinnati, New England, New York Jets