Written By Billy Attridge
NFL Week 11 is upon us and this will be the last time we’ll have a short slate of games until the playoffs. There are some really appealing matchups this week, with an impactful NFC North Sunday Night Football game that we’ll touch on, two offenses in Indianapolis that the market hasn’t caught up to, and a rematch of an AFC divisional round game last year. Before investing this weekend, see why these numbers have moved. With a short turnaround Thanksgiving week, we reveal the Vegas look ahead lines for Week 12, as well.
Minnesota +3 (-115) @ Chicago:
BetOnline.ag opened Chicago 3-point favorites, and since we’ve seen steady Vikings money enter the market. When we dig into the movement on this game, we have to start with the look-ahead lines and the results following. Chicago was -2 prior to last Sunday, and they proceeded to put together a solid effort, albeit against a Lions bunch that seems to be a in free fall at this point. The Vikings were on a bye, ready to attack the second half of the season. We mentioned this point last week, but following a home loss to the Patriots, Chicago was gifted with the Jets, Bills, and Lions the past three weeks (the Bears have played two teams with winning records all season, both losses). Now they get to face a Vikings team who has improved recently on the defensive front with the return of Everson Griffin (2nd in adjusted sack rate), and a passing attack that trumps anything they’ve seen in recent weeks. This shouldn’t be a surprise that this number is trending down and it should continue to drop.
Tennessee @ Indianapolis Over 48.5 (-110):
In a pivotal AFC South clash, the Titans and Colts total opened 48 at Betonline.ag and currently sits 48.5/49 depending on where you shop. Looking at these two offenses, we can start to see why this total has moved up. Indianapolis’ offensive line has been fantastic since the return of Anthony Castanzo; ranking 3rd in adjusted line yards and 5th in adjusted sack rate. The last 5 weeks the Colts have put up 24+ points, and Andrew Luck seems to be recovered from his shoulder ailment. On the other side, the market is starting to recognize what this Titans offense is in its current form, as opposed to when Marcus Mariota was having grip issues and Blaine Gabbert was getting snaps. Since the bye, the Titans scored 28 against a good Dallas defense, and 34 against the notorious “bend but don’t break” New England defense. Tennessee had 7 explosive pass plays against the Patriots, and Mariota is starting to push the ball downfield. The other reason this total is climbing is the lack of pass rush on either side (Colts 27th adjusted sack rate, Titans 19th). The scoreboard has the potential to light up Sunday afternoon.
Pittsburgh @ Jacksonville Under 47 (-110):
In a rematch of last year’s AFC divisional round where Jacksonville went into Pittsburgh and shocked the Steelers, we saw this total open 47.5 at BetOnline.ag and has since moved down to 47. We’ve discussed this many times, but Pittsburgh’s defense is quickly becoming one of the best in the league. They currently rank 7th in run success rate, and 5th in pass success rate, and that’s while facing the 5th toughest schedule of opposing offenses. Now they face Jacksonville (28th in overall offensive efficiency), whose bread and butter is running the ball north and south with Fournette, who still doesn’t appear to be 100%. On the opposite side, Jacksonville’s only chance in this game is to neutralize a Steelers offense that has been excellent recently. The Jaguars rank 9th in total defensive efficiency, and though they are up against it this week, you would expect a decent effort in what is essentially their last stand. I’m not sure how Jacksonville puts point on the board here, and can’t see this total staying at 47 especially with starting center Brandon Linder out.
NFL Week 12 Vegas Look Ahead Lines:
Chicago -3.5 at Detroit
Dallas -5 vs. Washington
New Orleans -11 vs. Atlanta
Jacksonville -4 at Buffalo
Baltimore vs. Oakland (N/A – Flacco)
Tampa Bay -5 vs. San Francisco
Philadelphia -9.5 vs. New York Giants
Cincinnati -3.5 vs. Cleveland
New England -8 at New York Jets
Carolina -4.5 vs. Seattle
Indianapolis vs. Miami (N/A – Tannehill)
Los Angeles Chargers -13.5 vs. Arizona
Pittsburgh -6 at Denver
Minnesota -4 vs. Green Bay
Houston -4 vs. Tennessee
BYE: Los Angeles Rams, Kansas City