Written By Billy Attridge
NFL Week 4 has arrived, bringing along with it the start of bye weeks, as Carolina and Washington take a breather. With three full games under our belt (still an incredibly small sample size), we can start to hone in on each teams strengths and weaknesses by the metrics. Below, we’ll evaluate the reasoning behind a 4.5-point total move in Atlanta, the state of the Indianapolis Colts’ offensive line, and if we may see a late move in the Monday night football game when Kansas City travels to Mile High stadium to take on the Denver Broncos.
Cincinnati @ Atlanta Over 51:
Monday morning we saw this total at 48, and by Monday afternoon it had risen to as high as 52.5. It’s since settled across the market in the 51-52.5 range. To be clear, groups hate going on a Monday morning, but they were so anxious to get the best number, they did so at lower limits. Digging in to the metrics, this makes sense. We have two teams who excel on the offensive side of the ball (Bengals 7th in Offensive efficiency, Atlanta 12th) playing on a fast surface with no chance of weather. Cincinnati also ranks 5th in Explosive Pass offense, and they face a Falcons defense that has been riddled with key injuries since the beginning of the year (losing starting secondary members Keanu Neal and Ricardo Allen in addition to cover linebacker Deion Jones). It has been well chronicled how poor Atlanta has been at covering running backs in the pass game, and this week gets no easier, even if Bengals running back Joe Mixon does not play. The Falcons have seemingly fixed their Red Zone offensive woes after Week 1’s debacle in Philadelphia, and their combination of wideouts in Jones, Ridley and Sanu may be the best trio in the NFL. These offenses should have a field day, and the over 48 through 50 was very real.
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Houston +2 @ Indianapolis:
BetOnline.ag opened Houston+3 (-115) Sunday night, and the largest key number in NFL did not stick around for long. Last week’s look ahead lines had the Texans a 2-point favorite, and so we still have a 4-point adjustment since the results last week. It’s not that in value since it’s crossing zero, but still, a good-sized adjustment. Houston fell at home to the Giants, despite winning the yards per play margin by +0.6 (they lost the turnover battle). While Indianapolis had a chance to win the game outright in Philadelphia, Andrew Luck showed that he has an inability to air the ball out downfield right now (the Colts rank 29th in Explosive Pass offense). The other issue Indianapolis has is the revolving door at the offensive tackle positions, as they eagerly await the return of Anthony Castonzo. With defensive ends J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney on he opposing side of the line of scrimmage, Indianapolis will be tested. This is desperation mode for the Texans, and we’ll see their best effort Sunday afternoon. This line could continue to drop if Castonzo is officially ruled out.
Kansas City @ Denver +4.5:
Kansas City opened 3.5-point road favorites for their Monday Night showdown against the Denver Broncos, and we’ve seen this number slowly rise to 4.5 and even 5/5.5 at some shops. The majority of the betting tickets are coming in on the Chiefs, and it’s hard to blame bettors for that. Patrick Mahomes has looked electric, and the numbers agree, with Kansas City ranking 1st in Offensive efficiency through 3 weeks. That being said, the Chiefs have faced the 4th easiest slate of defenses thus far, and now face a Denver defense that should take the run-game away (though they have been vulnerable through the air). Let’s take a look at the other side of the ball: Kansas City is dead last in defensive efficiency and 51%+ of all offensive snaps have graded successful against the Chiefs defense. Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman could have a big night on the ground, and in doing so would leave the Chiefs offense sitting on the bench. This number before the season started was Denver-1, before last week’s results Denver was +3, and now we’re staring at Denver +4.5 or better. With the public gravitating towards Kansas City, I expect this number to rise as kickoff approaches, despite professional bettors being on the dog. Sports books hope pro bettors get involved, to help lessen the liability.
For Breakdowns of the biggest Week 4 NFL games listen to Bet the Board podcast
Vegas Look-Ahead Lines for NFL Week 5:
New England -8 vs. Indianapolis
Cleveland +1 vs. Baltimore
Kansas City -3.5 vs. Jacksonville
Buffalo +3 vs. Tennessee
Carolina -6 vs. New York Giants
New York Jets -2.5 vs. Denver
Pittsburgh -3 vs. Atlanta
Detroit PICK’em vs. Green Bay
Cincinnati -4 vs. Miami
LA Chargers -6.5 vs. Oakland
San Francisco -2.5 vs. Arizona
Philadelphia -3 vs. Minnesota
Seattle +7 vs. Los Angeles Rams
Houston -4.5 vs. Dallas
New Orleans -7 vs. Washington
BYE: Tampa Bay, Chicago
