Written By Billy Attridge
We’re almost at the halfway point of the NFL season and the topic at hand is Week 8 market moves; where does the time go? At this stage we have a good idea of which teams are for real, and which are pretenders. Two teams professional bettors hate with Oakland and Buffalo square off, where does that line ultimately settle? Deshaun Watson has two weeks to prepare for Seattle’s 12th man, can he handle a tough environment? Both the Cowboys and Redskins are dealing with injuries, which team can overcome them? As always, Vegas look ahead lines are out for those bettors looking to get the best of the number early.
Oakland @ Buffalo -2.5 (-118):
The Raiders come into Western New York off of a big victory over division rival Kansas City, and with a couple extra days of rest Oakland looks to continue their upward trajectory. The Bills escaped last week with a victory at home against the Buccaneers, in which they were down a touchdown late in the 4th. BetOnline.Ag opened Buffalo -3 (-105), and that number has moved off the key number to its current price throughout the week. This number should continue to slide down, and here’s why; 4 of the Bills 6 opponents currently rank in the bottom 3rd of the league in offensive efficiency, and the only two who don’t either had massive injuries during the game (Atlanta lost Julio Jones and Sanu in the 2nd Quarter), or dropped 27 points on them (Tampa Bay). The Raiders rank Top 10 in offensive efficiency, and as a whole has underperformed this year. Buffalo is going to be without their best cornerback (E.J. Gaines), and possibly their best safety (Jordan Poyer) and offensive lineman (Richie Incognito). With the emergence of Amari Cooper last week and the semblance of a strong pass offense, Buffalo could be in trouble. I don’t expect to see 3 again this week.
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Houston @ Seattle Over 45.5 (-110):
The total opened as low as 42 at a few shops and has since been moved to 46 at BetOnline.AG. This move is as real as it gets, as we have two teams that rank Top 15 in offensive pass efficiency, with the Texans getting a superstar back in left tackle Duane Brown. Seattle has much stronger offensive output at home where they average +8.1 points scored over opponent, as opposed to -1.8 on the highway. Seattle’s offense is starting to click a bit, and Houston is coming off the bye with what should be a decent game plan to try and exploit a stingy Seattle secondary. With injuries to the Texans defensive front seven (Watt and Mercilus), the biggest mismatch in this game is somewhat nullified. This could reach the key of 47 before we see resistance, whether it be a difference in opinion, or in the form of a middle after going from 42 to 47 where all the largest NFL key numbers for totals are in play.
Dallas @ Washington +1.5 (-110):
A pivotal NFC East match-up in the 4:25pm time slot where the Redskins opened +2.5 (-120); allowing professional bettors to buy cheaply to +3. Dallas has since dropped to a 1.5 favorite. With over 70% of tickets coming in on the road favorite, this is turning into a big position for the books as the afternoon time slot should mean more recreational bettors chasing or attempting to double up on America’s Team. Washington suffered some injuries to their offensive line during their 10-point loss at Philadelphia in prime-time (a closer game statistically than the score indicated), and the Cowboys couldn’t have looked better against the 49ers, winning 40-10. Dallas has faced a slew of weak pass defenses this year (only one in the top 15), and with Josh Norman coming back, the Skins 13th ranked Pass efficiency defense should improve. Washington also has a strong pass offense, and should be able to exploit this young Dallas secondary allowing nearly 65% of passes to be completed. If the public does push this number back to -2.5/-3, don’t expect it to stay there long – and at the current price the ‘Skins make an appealing teaser leg.
[ For more information on the biggest Week 8 NFL games listen to Bet the Board podcast ]
Week 8 Vegas Look Ahead Lines courtesy of Westgate Superbook:
Home Spread Away
Jets +2.5 Bills
Eagles -6.5 Broncos
Giants +3 (+100) Rams
Saints -6.5 Buccaneers
Jaguars -3 (-120) Bengals
Panthers -2 Falcons
Texans -10.5 Colts
Titans -4.5 Ravens
49ers +1 Cardinals
Seahawks -6.5 Redskins
Cowboys PK Chiefs
Raiders +1 Dolphins
Packers PK Lions
