Week 3 went to the underdogs, with many sports books claiming a record score this past Sunday. As we peak at Week 4 market moves, we have started to see the strength’s and weaknesses’ of teams, and therefore, handicapping games with an accurate look at advantageous match-ups between team’s individual units can lead to edges the market can’t properly quantify.
Here are three NFL Week 4 games to monitor as Sunday approaches:
Los Angeles @ Dallas -6 (-107):
BetOnline.Ag opened the Cowboys a strong 8.5-point home favorite, but that number has been steadily bet down during the early part of the week to where it stands now (-6). The Rams are coming off their Thursday night victory over the 49ers, where they were able to showcase the talent they have on the offensive side of the ball (averaged 7.0 yards per play). Dallas is coming off a road victory on Monday night over the Cardinals, where the offense and Ezekiel Elliot got the ground game going in the 2nd half. Professional money has come in on the dog, though I expect the public will be out on Sunday to (hopefully) push this line closer to 7, where we could see another wave from pro bettors. If you are looking to back the Rams at this point, I would wait until kickoff to see if an opportunity rises to grab a natural 7, or find one on a cheap buy when you get the chance.
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New York @ Tampa Bay Over 44.5 (-117):
This total opened as low as 43.5 (-110), and now sits at 44.5 (-117), shaded to the over – and that’s significant with 44 being a key number in today’s total market. We saw the Giants offense click late in Philadelphia with Odell Beckham Jr. appearing to be back at full strength (yes, that unfortunately includes his touchdown celebrations). While the Giants are still struggling to run the ball, they are 8th overall in the NFL in Pass Success Rate (50%). Meanwhile, the Buccaneers are 1st overall in that category, and dead last in Defensive Pass Success Rate; allowing 59% of passes against them to grade successful. With a game featuring Eli Manning and Jameis Winston under center, we could also see some “questionable” decisions that could lead to turnovers and quick scores. We have already seen this total take some over money, and it should continue to rise with numerous defensive injuries for the Bucs. The only way this total doesn’t continue to tick up is if word gets out that Dirk Koeter wants to slow the game down and goes run-heavy to protect his beat up defense.
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Philadelphia @ Los Angeles -2 (-110):
The Chargers opened -1 (-110) at BetOnline.Ag, and currently sit -2 (-110) despite 60% of the overall tickets being written on the Eagles. This looks to be a typical “buy low, sell high” opportunity in the NFL market, as Los Angeles is off a home loss to their division rival Kansas City (Rivers three interceptions), and the Eagles off of a huge home win over the Giants, capped by a 61 yard field goal by their rookie kicker. The Eagles have some issues in the secondary, concerning both their performance (26th in Defensive Pass Success Rate), and injuries (Darby, McLeod, Watkins). Defensive tackle Fletcher Cox is struggling with a calf injury, which could prevent the Eagles from generating the interior pressure that leads to so much success for Philadelphia. This seems to be a last-ditch effort for the Chargers, and this number should continue to climb.
Week 5 Look Ahead Lines (courtesy of the Las Vegas Westgate Superbook):
Home Spread Away
Buccaneers +4.5 Patriots
Giants -3 Chargers
Bengals -3 (-120) Bills
Browns -4 Jets
Steelers -7.5 Jaguars
Dolphins +2.5 Titans
Colts -2.5 49ers
Eagles -5.5 Cardinals
Lions -3 Panthers
Rams +3 Seahawks
Raiders -5 Ravens
Cowboys -3 (-120) Packers
Texans +3 (+100) Chiefs
Bears N/A Vikings
