Another week of both college and pro football; another week of data points for all of us to incorporate into our handicapping moving forward.
College Football
Sharp money isn’t always right, and sometimes it’s completely wrong. Temple was bet from +20 down to +17.5 before kickoff against South Florida but the Owls failed to do much of anything. USF won the yardage battle 408-85, first downs 22-6, the turnover battle 6-2, and out rushed Temple 312 to -4 (you’re reading that right). Neither team threw the ball worth a damn with both starting quarterbacks finishing under 100 yards passing.
Utah went down to Tucson and stole a 6-point victory despite being out gained 448-341. Turnovers proved costly for the Wildcats as Arizona was unable to overcome a -3 ratio (5-2). Betting on either of these teams to actually win games in conference will take a leap of faith, especially after Utah lost their starting quarterback and will transition to last year’s pivot Troy Williams.
Games snowball quickly in college football; especially for totals bettors. Miami and Toledo played an unremarkable 1st half in South Florida with the Rockets taking a slim 16-10 lead into the break. Under bettors hopes and dreams wouldn’t last long in the hot Miami sun as weather wilted the Toledo defense, allowing the Canes to score 42-points in the game’s final 30 minutes; pulling away for an easy 52-30 victory eclipsing the closing total of 60.5 by a wide margin.
Penn State needed a TD as time expired to sneak by Iowa as 13-point favorites, although the game should never have been close. Penn State owned the stat sheet; 579-273 yards, 29-11 first downs, and 39:39-20:21 in time of possession. Yet none of those stats trumped the snap disparity where Penn State ran 99 plays to Iowa’s 45. Little to say those metrics far from normal in a game decided by just two points.
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Normally, when two teams combine for 948 yards it yields more than 51 points of offense. Then again, when you turn the ball over 5 times it’s difficult to sustain drives that end in points. That’s exactly what plagued Houston in their 27-24 loss to Texas Tech. Dare I say this misleading box score could create over/under value for the Red Raiders this coming weekend against Oklahoma State? Bet over 81 at your own peril…
New Mexico beat Tulsa outright as 9.5-point underdogs over the weekend. That’s not even the impressive part; UNM outgained the Golden Hurricane 446-286, finished +10 in first downs, and held the ball for 35 minutes longer. The reason the game’s final margin was only a field again came down to turnover issues where the Lobos finished -2.
Appalachian State pulled an impressive feat; losing 20-19 despite outgaining their opponent by 150 yards, picking up 9 more first downs, running 20 more plays, and possessing the ball for 11+ minutes longer. The worst part for the Mountaineers is they couldn’t even blame ball security for the defeat (teams finished even). There could be value fading the Deacons in coming weeks if the market prices them as a 4-0 football team, rather than what their early season metrics profile suggests
NFL
No team is ever as good (or bad) as they looked the previous week. It was hard to decide which team played worse during Week 3 with Baltimore, Oakland, and Pittsburgh in a dead heat for bragging rights. Interestingly enough, the market has shown very little respect for both the Ravens and Raiders on the heels of those performances so it will bear watching if those dreadful performances are outliers or indicative of future results.
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Books found it damn near impossible to buy a Buffalo Bills bet in their upset win over the Denver Broncos. Buffalo closed a 3.5-point dog after the game opened +1 at BetOnline.AG. Even in the win, Buffalo should be considered fortunate after being outgained 366-272, out first downed 21-16, and averaging 4.3 YPP to Denver’s 5.5. Turnovers were the equalizer; Buffalo finished +2.
Say what you want about the Seahawks offensive line (it isn’t good) but the offense wasn’t the problem in Seattle’s loss to Tennessee. Russel Wilson went 29 of 49 for 373 yards and 4 touchdowns. Doug Baldwin was the primary beneficiary hauling in 10 receptions for 105 yards on 15 targets. The big issue for the Seahawks in the loss was hidden yardage doubling Tennessee in both accepted penalties and total yardage (there’s no truth that Richard Sherman accounted for the entire discrepancy).
