Building on our article from a few weeks ago where we assessed the current crop of EPL managers against newly promoted sides, so I wanted to put a different spin on a similar theme:
How do the managers of the ‘Big Six‘ perform in their current jobs against sides that finish in the bottom half of the EPL table?
With at least a full season in their current roles for the managers in question, I sense there is a sufficient sample size for us to begin investigating, and then drawing some preliminary conclusions. The key to this type of research is understanding what we are trying to glean from the study and how to apply it to our betting process moving forward.
Often in these EPL Matches the behemoths are priced at -1.25 or larger at home and -0.75 or greater away from home when taking on this type of inferior opposition. Those lines require wins by more than a full goal to fully cash, so the desire within the respective camps to push on and win big becomes very important to us as bettors attacking the Asian handicap.
It’s interesting in how you approach this research with preconceptions; I obviously had my own ideas of what the study would inevitably show. Operating under the opinion that Arsenal, Liverpool and Man City just ‘play the game’ with no consideration of closing games out in a professional manner whereas Chelsea, Man United, and Tottenham take a far more pragmatic approach. This is why a gut feeling and data driven analysis don’t always mesh perfectly.
Current Record against bottom of the table clubs:
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Antonio Conte (Chelsea): (17-2-1) – 2.65 points per game
Pep Guardiola (Manchester City): (16-3-1) – 2.55 points per game
Arsene Wenger (Arsenal): (78-16-6) – 2.50 points per game (last 100 games)
Mauricio Pochettino (Tottenham): (44-10-6) – 2.37 points per game
Jose Mourinho (Manchester United): (13-6-1) – 2.25 points per game
Jurgen Klopp (Liverpool): (21-6-9) – 1.92 points per game
With Chelsea hosting Man City this Saturday, only four matches fit the criteria, and all of the other four teams in the ‘Big Six‘ play a game against likely bottom half finishers. So this weekend we have Arsenal entertaining Brighton, Liverpool traveling to Newcastle, Man United hosting Crystal Palace, and Tottenham on the road at Huddersfield; how do those sides perform in this spot?
Home Teams
Arsenal is 40-7-3 with 28 (56%) of those victories coming by two or more goals. However, this line is set at Arsenal -1.75 so the Gunners need to win by three goals to fully cover. Be careful of that extra quarter goal if they are only hitting 56% on the -1.5 line.
Man United is 5-5-0 with 4 (40%) of those victories by two or more goals and only one by three goals. With the line set for their meeting with Palace at -2, and European duties possibly on their mind, be wary. Even though Mourinho isn’t calling off the dogs when his side gets up this season, he still appears more concerned with just the result rather than extravagant displays full of attacking flair.
Away Teams
Liverpool is 11-2-6 and only 4 (21%) of those coming by two or more goals. With the line set at Liverpool -0.75, it’s a very brave man who trusts them to win by two clear goals fully covering in a week where they’ve traveled back from a European trip to Moscow.
Tottenham 22-6-2 with 12 (40%) of those by two or more goals. Even with a line of -1.25, Pochettino’s men have a proven track record of delivering in this spot and surely the Terriers’ regression will come soon?
Whatever you choose to bet this weekend, consider these trends on prohibitive favorites and use them in conjunction with your own handicapping and research before you decide to place money on a shark potentially feasting on minnows.
