“You got my homework finished, McFly?”
“Erm. Well, actually, I figured since it wasn’t due until Monday…“
“Hello, hello, anybody home?”
Everywhere in life there are bullies. Whether it be a Biff Tannen-like schoolyard bully picking on a young George McFly, Donald Trump bullying business deals through, or a sports bully dominating on the field.
The EPL is no different and while researching West Brom’s trip to Brighton last weekend I unearthed a very interesting stat; under Tony Pulis the Baggies were 1-6-0 away to newly promoted sides. That intrigued me as I think we can all agree West Brom is no better than an average Premier league side, yet when they travel to newcomers in the league they never seem to lose. West Brom seemed to have the formula for avoiding defeat when traveling to the Premiership newbies. Those trends can be used however you wish, but I was happy to take the Baggies on the PK line. Clearly, I misinterpreted the stat and read it as losing none of seven games rather than looking at it from the perspective of winning just one of seven matches in that spot. West Brom lost the game and I lost my bet, but I feel that the general research behind the bet was valid and it was only my application of the statistics that left me empty-handed.
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Let’s see then how the current crop of EPL teams perform (last 30 games) when taking on newly promoted sides under their current manager. Surely, they should just be cannon fodder for the established Premiership teams and be used as stat-padders in the win column. Well, let’s see by checking the numbers as we go back to see the future? See what I did there? Terrible, I know…
Below is the straight up record of teams facing newly promoted soccer clubs:
Arsenal (26-4-0)
Bournemouth (4-2-4)
Brighton (0-0-0)
Burnley (2-4-2)
Chelsea (5-1-0)
Crystal Palace (0-0-0)
Everton (3-2-1)
Huddersfield (1-0-0)
Leicester (2-0-0)
Liverpool (7-0-3)
Man City (5-2-0)
Manchester United (4-2-0)
Newcastle (0-0-2)
Southampton (0-1-0)
Stoke (12-7-5)
Swansea (1-1-1)
Tottenham (18-1-0)
Watford (0-1-0)
West Brom (3-7-5)
West Ham (6-3-5)
Clearly, Arsene Wenger and Mauricio Pochettino enjoy leading their north London teams in this spot as their records in such games are exceptional. What these statistics do prove is that beating the newly promoted teams in the EPL, who usually reside in the lower reaches of the table, does not necessarily equate to league wide success. Beating the teams in and around you becomes much more of a determining factor for success as teams such as Stoke, West Brom and West Ham all perform well enough in these situations to avoid ever being stuck in a relegation battle.
This week it is Eddie Howe (Bournemouth), Mark Hughes (Stoke) and Craig Shakespeare (Leicester) who are the three bosses tasked with leading their sides against the EPL newbies. Howe is 4-1-0 at home in this spot and are laying just a quarter of a goal at home to a Brighton side with few attacking threats on the roster. Hughes’ team is a resilient 4-6-2 away in this spot and they are receiving a quarter goal for their visit to a Newcastle side that tends to grind results out rather than blast teams. Leicester is laying a quarter of a goal for their road trip to a Huddersfield side who crashed down to earth on Monday Night Football when they lost their first game of the season 2-0 away at West Ham. The Foxes have been given a tough start to the season by the schedule compilers but in this game they should enjoy a return to the counter attacking style that they employ against inferior opponents on the road.
