Prop Bets to Consider Ahead of Super Bowl 58
We took a break from the market moves column; not wanting to force anything in the midst of down season. With the Carolina Panthers win total settled, we head into Super Bowl 58 at 4-6 on the season. Similar to last year, we return with prop bets ahead of Sunday’s Big Game. 4-2 with a +370 winner on props is how last seasons Super Bowl treated us, and we’re back with SEVEN this year. There isn’t be a better time to attack betting markets with so many offerings at our disposal. The more bets oddsmakers need to line, the more opportunity for errors that we look to capitalize on.
Kansas City to Convert a 4th Down (-110)
Can you believe it? This is the 4th Super Bowl appearance for the Mahomes–Reid combination, so we don’t envision big game jitters or conservatism. Andy Reid is a plus-coach when it comes to 4th down decision making. The 49ers are good enough on both sides to push the Chiefs and put them in enough positions where a 4th down attempt is required. Playable to -135.
Highest Scoring Quarter UNDER 20.5 (-150)
Both these teams were outside the Top 15 for the year in overall pace, with San Francisco particularly slow. The 49ers were 31st in neutral game state seconds per play and when leading. With the fear of Mahomes, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Shanahan use the play-clock and extend offensive drives out. Playable to -170 but do NOT take 19.5.
Total Kansas City Chiefs with a Reception OVER 7.5 (-105)
Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice, MVS, Isaiah Pacheco, and Noah Gray are probable to grab at least one reception. Justin Watson is lined at 1.5 catches, bringing us to 6 players. Then the Chiefs have a combination of Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Mecole Hardman, Richie James, Kadarious Toney, Blake Bell, and the return of Skyy Moore as well as Jerick McKinnon being a game time decision. With a “take what they give us” game-plan from the Chiefs offense, it’s playable to -130.
Total Number of Punts UNDER 8.5 (-160)
Partly tied to my lean OVER, I expect both the Chiefs and 49ers to move the ball even if they are not explosive. With the total still above the key of 47, I much prefer this route.
San Francisco 49ers Most Rushing Yards (-160)
Both Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel have had their rushing totals steamed OVER. In the NFC Championship game, the 49ers had 31 non-kneel down runs despite trailing by three scores while facing a Lions defense #1 in rushing efficiency. The projected game state and matchup in Super Bowl 58 are far more favorable than what I described the last time San Francisco put on their pads. Playable to -175.
Isiah Pacheco 1st Quarter UNDER 5.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
First quarter and half markets expanded the last couple days. San Francisco has the tools at linebacker to stifle long running back passes, and its entirely possible with the pace that Pacheco must hit this on the opening drive. We’re betting against that. Playable to u4.5-140.
Brock Purdy to Thrown an Interception: YES (-115)
Brock has been incredible this season, and the slander is unjustified. That said, we’ve seen Purdy force balls and throw interceptions against the best defenses on the 49ers schedule and most sophisticated schemes (Baltimore, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Minnesota). The Chiefs have a wildly talented cornerback group with an elite defensive coordinator that changes coverages pre and post snap while sending exotic pressures. Purdy will make a bad decisions or two and we’re banking on the Chiefs capitalizing. Playable to -145.
2023-2024 NFL Market Moves Record: (4-6)
2022-2023 NFL Market Moves Record: (13-6-1)
