Super Bowl 57 Prop Bets To Consider
Last time we convened was Week 16 when the Carolina Panthers +3 hosting Detroit got us to the window. That capped a great 2022 NFL season around these parts, winning 69.2% of bets in our line moves column. It was a wonky season, where we thoughtfully picked spots to attack. Super Bowl 57 is the perfect time to reimmerse ourselves and dive head first into prop bets.
Kansas City Chiefs Total Touchdowns OVER 2.5 (-150)
This price is extremely low for a Chiefs offense looking to have its full arsenal of weapons as the injury report for most Kansas City receivers trends positively. We know the Eagles defense has faced the easiest schedule of offenses this season, and played those offenses in positive game scripts mostly. Kansas City’s team total is lined north of 24 at publishing. The Chiefs are 14-5 to the over this season when their TD total is set at 2.5. When did we forget the Chiefs have the most efficient offense in the NFL? Our projection shows OVER 2.5 is playable to -175.
Jerick McKinnin UNDER 5.5 Rushing Yards 1st Quarter (-125)
Sports books are offering 1st Quarter and 1st Half player props this season. I anticipate seeing expanded menus on game day as industry competition rises. Jerick McKinnon’s full game rush yards was swiftly bet UNDER at open, but the 1st quarter provides unique opportunity. The Eagles game plan likely features more running than usual. Isiah Pacheco is slated to start. It’s conceivable McKinnon doesn’t receive a carry in the 1st Quarter if Philadelphia receives the opening kickoff. McKinnon hasn’t been an efficient runner recently either. 24 caries the last 5 games has yielded just 43 yards. Factor in the high rate of passing from the Chiefs, and there is value going UNDER 5.5 1st Quarter rushing yards playable to -145.
More Receptions? Jerick McKinnon + Isiah Pachecho vs. DeVonta Smith (-122)
Bettors believe Patrick Mahomes is likely throwing the ball 40+ times, as his pass attempts prop is lined 39.5 (-135) to the over. The Chiefs screen game is one of the best in the NFL. Throwing quick and short is a great way to negate pressure from the Eagles defensive front. The Chiefs rank 9th in pass rate on throws 1 to 9 air yards. Factoring in a game-script that lends itself towards a competitive contest where Philadelphia can employ its run game throughout, I think there is value here. McKinnon + Pacheco to have more receptions than DeVonta Smith playable to -140.
Highest Scoring Quarter UNDER 20.5 (-120)
After getting bet down at open, this trickled back into range as the full game was bet OVER. While we have two elite offenses squaring off against untested defenses, neither stop unit is inept. The Chiefs are methodical moving the ball and could use more heavy formations. The Eagles will likely play from a game state conducive to more running. Mahomes is healthier but not 100%. Jalen Hurts accuracy issues since the shoulder injury are concerning. Highest Scoring Quarter UNDER 20.5 is playable to -135.
Boston Scott Rush Attempts UNDER 3.5 (-170)
Boston Scott and Kenneth Gainwell have seen an uptick in carries, but why? With significant leads in the second half, Miles Sanders has been put on ice for preservation allowing backfield mates to flourish. Boston Scott’s rush yards has been bet down from 12.5 to 8.5, yet he would need 4 carries to lose this recommended investment. Sure, injury *could happen or the Eagles *could have a big lead again. But the odds are stacked against both. As Payne said on his podcast this week; since Week 15 when the Eagles haven’t led by double digits in the second half the carry distribution is this: Sanders 32, Gainwell 3, Scott 2. The spread indicates a game close enough to feature Sanders, and Gainwell is the back to take advantage of the Chiefs defense in the receiving game. Both lead to less volume for Scott making UNDER 3.5 rush attempts playable to -225.
Kadarius Toney Anytime Touchdown (+370)
Scale back bet size on this one, but there are plenty of positive indicators. Kadarius Toney’s receiving yards was steamed at open from 20.5 to 22.5. Payne mentioned this on Bet The Board podcast this week and immediately it shot to 23.5. Betting groups got involved after that and at publishing, Toney’s receiving yards have peaked to 30.5! Toney was a full participant at Thursday’s practice. The Eagles defend short passes poorly. Andy Reid’s creativity in the Red Zone whether it be a pass or jet sweep in the Mecole Hardman role makes this worth a stab playable down to (+300).
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