A Playoff-Like Game on the Move for NFL Week 16
Nobody likes kissing their sister but it was the lesser of two evils in Week 15 thanks to our first half approach. Three weeks remain and the NFL playoff picture is slowly taking shape in both conferences. An underrated NFC matchup could leave the loser on the outside looking in, and that is where our focus for NFL Week 16 lies. Detroit is one of the hottest teams in the league looking to extend their playoff lives. The Lions travel to Carolina hoping to squash Sam Darnold and the Panthers hopes of winning the NFC South.
#458 Carolina Panthers +3 (-120)
The Week 15 look-ahead opened Detroit 2.5-point road chalk in Carolina. At reopen, Detroit leaked out to -3 flat after beating the Jets on the road and Carolina losing to Pittsburgh at home. Since then, professional bettors have gravitated towards the underdog, gobbling all the +3 in site. At publishing, the market is split between Carolina +3 (-120) and Detroit -2.5 (-120).
Detroit is playing excellent ball with great offensive efficiency paired with an improved defense especially along the line. So my issue isn’t with the Lions on-field play right now, but that enhanced play has forced the markets hand. The price you have to pay to back Detroit away from Ford Field has reached peak for Dan Campbell and the Motor City boys. Just last week, the Jets without their best defensive player Quinnen Williams closed 2.5-point favorites hosting Detroit. No respected bettor on earth has the Zach Wilson led Jets -5.5 versus Carolina on a neutral, and that is what the current line depicts.
In Darnold We Trust…
Carolina came to life after coaching and quarterback changes to Steve Wilks and Sam Darnold. The 3rd pick in the 2018 draft has quietly graded the 2nd best quarterback in EPA+Completion Percentage Over Expectation among quarterbacks with at least 75 dropbacks this season. The Panthers also have a clean bill of health with its injury report not having a single “DNP” on Thursday. The same can’t be said for Detroit, as its 3rd best graded defender in DeShon Elliott is out. Starting center Frank Ragnow is battling a foot injury and has logged one limited practice. The Panthers defensive line and front 7 has done a solid job against the run this season, grading out 9th in run stop win rate and 12th in adjusted line yards. Going up against an offensive line as talented as Detroit’s requires a stout front.
In Week 10, Detroit closed soft +3 at Chicago. Week 11 we saw a similar price at the New York Giants. Teams absolutely have the ability to improve and warrant significant price changes over 5-week periods, but we’re reaching a point in the market where the Lions are overvalued. Carolina closed -3 last week against Pittsburgh, and now we’re seeing a 6-point difference between Pittsburgh and Detroit? Impossible. Carolina +3-120 natural or on the buy is the only way to look. If the Panthers continue taking professional money and drop to +2.5 flat or lower, utilizing them in a 6-point teaser through the 3 and the 7 is smart as well.
NFL Week 17 Look Ahead Lines
Dallas -6 at Tennessee
Tampa Bay -7 vs Carolina
Washington -2 vs Cleveland
Baltimore -5.5 vs Pittsburgh
Philadelphia -5.5 vs New Orleans
Atlanta -3 vs Arizona
Jacksonville -6 at Houston
Detroit -6.5 vs Chicago
Miami -2.5 at New England
Kansas City -10 vs Denver
New York Giants -3 vs Indianapolis
Seattle -1.5 vs New York Jets
San Francisco -4.5 at Las Vegas
Green Bay -2.5 vs Minnesota
Los Angeles Chargers -8.5 vs Los Angeles Rams
Buffalo -1.5 at Cincinnati
