Week 1 provided a 2-1 start for our weekly market moves (no need to mention that Lions total). This week there are two divisional matchups that caught my eye. The NFC South battle between New Orleans and Carolina means one team starts fast at 2-0 in a NFC devoid of a true middle class. Buffalo produced an uncharacteristic offensive performance in their opener meaning a positive regression might be on the horizon. As always we share early NFL week 3 look ahead lines courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
New Orleans @ Carolina +3.5 (-110):
Using look ahead prices is an outstanding tool to gauge market sentiment before games are played. Before New Orleans easily dispatched Green Bay in their opener the Saints were listed as -2.5 point road favorites. When prices re-opened after Week 1, books took the risk averse approach opening this game right on the key number of 3.
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Early Market Move
We saw early week Saints money actually push this price as high as 4. However, that price point prompted a buy from professional bettors as they scooped the secondary key number as well as the cheap 3.5’s. This move was partially triggered by the report coming out of New Orleans that 8 coaches and players might be unavailable for the game. Starting corner Marshon Lattimore is dealing with a hand injury but did return to Thursday’s practice. Center Erik McCoy was not so lucky; McCoy’s calf injury looks to have him sidelined when piecing together practice reports along with the signing of Austin Reiter.
Panther Penetration
Carolina and New Orleans are two of the tougher teams to gauge after their week one outcomes. We have to ask about the relative strength of their Week 1 opponents. Are the Jets going to be a dumpster fire this year, especially on that offensive line now that Mekhi Becton is expected to miss 4-8 weeks? Did the Packers just implode Sunday or is this a sign of things to come? I believe we do know that the Panthers defensive line is significantly better this year under second year head coach Matt Rule and DC Phil Snow. Carolina finished 3rd in adjusted line yards and adjusted sack percentage, meaning rookie quarterback Zach Wilson never felt comfortable in the pocket. There’s a good chance the Panthers front 7 is capable of wreaking similar havoc on the Saints if McCoy is unavailable.
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Panther Pop
On the offensive side of the ball, Carolina might get back the services of offensive guard John Miller from the illness list providing a nice upgrade in the trenches. After the Jets churned out an 80% pass-rush win rate mark all bodies are welcomed along the Panthers O-line. Unlike the Packers, Carolina actually trots out three speedsters in their skill position groupings. DJ Moore, Robbie Anderson, Christian McCaffrey, and rookie receiver Terrace Marshall Jr. could be the offensive x-factor in a breakout performance. I expect to see more Carolina money throughout the week, especially if New Orleans is undermanned on the field and in the coaching box.
Buffalo Team Total Over 26.5 (-110) @ Miami:
Let’s start with the movement on both the side and total. Buffalo opened a 3-point favorite with a total at 48.5. We’ve seen the Bills take money, meet resistance at +3.5 (-105/+100), dipping to -3 flat before another wave of Bills support hit the screen. The total has ticked down to 48/47.5 across multiple books but I’m not sure that will be the final say on the total come Sunday. At the time of post there is only a 3% chance of thunderstorms in the forecast for South Florida but sure to check again before firing.
Trench Warfare
This Bills O-line met their match (and then some) against Pittsburgh last weekend. Buffalo was called for 8 holding penalties and graded out 21st in adjusted line yards. Pittsburgh was properly prepped for Buffalo and it showed in an uncharacteristically poor effort for the Bills offense. Despite what weather reports suggested, there were pronounced wind gusts causing problems for Allen’s deep ball accuracy. Pittsburgh only needed to blitz twice all game to induce a 41% pressure rate allowing the Steelers to drop more defenders into coverage.
Breath of fresh air
This Sunday Buffalo faces a defensive line that’s not remotely close to the caliber and talent level of the Steelers. Miami finished just 28th in adjusted sack % against New England and overall ranked in the bottom 3rd in both rush and pass success rate. The loss of defensive tackle Raekwon Davis is a significant blow to the Dolphins defensive front. Brian Flores is a great defensive mind, however he has yet to show an ability to slow Buffalo OC Brian Daboll down. This could be a big Cole Beasely and Emmanual Sanders game working from the slot. I expect Buffalo’s offense to bounce back in a big way and the team total offers value.
NFL Week 3 Look-Ahead Lines via FanDuel Sportsbook:
Carolina -4 at Houston
Arizona -6.5 at Jacksonville
Indianapolis at Tennessee -3.5
Washington at Buffalo -8.5
New Orleans at New England -1
LA Chargers at Kansas City -7
Chicago at Cleveland -9.5
Atlanta at NY Giants -2.5
Miami at Las Vegas -1.5
NY Jets at Denver -8.5
Tampa Bay at LA Rams -1.5
Seattle -2.5 at Minnesota
Green Bay at San Francisco -3
Philadelphia at Dallas -3.5
