Written By Billy Attridge
As we enter Week 3 of the 2018 NFL season, we have some surprising (and not so surprising) story lines. The Browns continue to find ways to avoid a “1” in the win column, Tampa Bay is 2-0 after taking down two preseason Super Bowl contenders, and Pittsburgh searches for it’s first win on Monday Night Football. We’ll touch on a total in Baltimore that the market simply hasn’t caught up to yet, a team that has looked so dreadful it might be time to BUY, and a Monday Night Football total that has moved nearly 4 points. We also take a glance at Vegas look ahead lines for Week 4.
Denver @ Baltimore Over 43.5 (-115):
This total opened 43.5 at BetOnline.ag, and fell briefly to 43 before we saw OVER money hit the market. When we look at this matchup, there are a variety of factors pointing towards a high scoring game at M&T Bank field on Sunday. While both defenses have been stout against the run, the pass game is where we see advantages. Denver currently ranks 27th Passing Success Rate Defense, and 29th in Explosive Pass Defense. They’ll also face a team whose run the second quickest pace of play thus far in Baltimore. While Denver has had a tough time figuring out which pace to play at, as a road underdog they could be forced to move faster. On the other side of the ball, Denver ranks 7th in Explosive Pass Offense, and should have some success against a Ravens defense without their two best defensive players (Jimmy Smith is serving a 4-game suspension, andC.J. Mosley is out with a bone bruise on his knee). It is not a surprise that this game took over money when it hit one of the key total numbers at 43, and it should surpass another in 44.
BetOnline.Ag Bonus Codes: 75BTB first time (75% Bonus); 50BTB for reloads (50% Bonus)
Chicago @ Arizona +6 (-110):
Prior to last week’s games, Chicago was a 2.5-point favorite on the road in Arizona. After they won and covered the spread Monday night, and Arizona was clobbered 34-0 in Los Angeles, we saw a 3.5-point adjustment, as this line opened 6. We saw this drift to 6.5, where professional money came in on Arizona, scooping up the 6.5’s and buying to the key of 7. Arizona has struggled mightily in their first two contests, and their “stock” seems quite low right now. On the other hand, Chicago has impressed …. in a way. Their defense has Top 10 efficiency potentially, and likely higher, written all over them. The offense, though, seems to be hitting a wall after the opening script wears off. Mitch Trubisky has his moments, but there have been some head-scratching decisions, as well. With Chicago still working through kinks on offensive, a trip across the country on a short week, and a total of 38 at BetOnline.ag, professional money will continue to hit Arizona +6 or better.
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Pittsburgh @ Tampa Bay Over 53.5 (-110):
One of the biggest moves this week, BetOnline.ag opened 50, and since the number has climbed as high as 54. This rise shouldn’t shock bettors, as both Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh rank Top 10 in Explosive Pass Offense, as well as the bottom third in Explosive Pass Defense. Tampa Bay has been extremely efficient through the air, averaging a whopping 13.3 yards per pass attempt, #1 in the NFL. Pittsburgh was torched through the air last week, and it’s tough to make a case that won’t be the situation this week. On the other side, Tampa Bay Brent Grimes is questionable with a groin injury, but even if he plays, the likelihood of him being 100% is doubtful, and with Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster coming into town, the Tampa secondary situation looks bleak. Professional money got out ahead of the public, going over 50, 50.5, 51, and 52 in a game that could look very similar to what we saw last week at Heinz Field.
Vegas Look-Ahead Lines for Week 4:
Los Angeles Rams -5 vs. Minnesota
Atlanta -5 vs. Cincinnati
Chicago -1.5 vs. Tampa Bay
Dallas -4.5 vs. Detroit
Green Bay -14.5 vs. Buffalo
Tennessee vs. Philadelphia (N/A – Mariota)
Indianapolis +2 vs. Houston
New England -9.5 vs. Miami
Jacksonville -9.5 vs. New York Jets
Oakland -2.5 vs. Cleveland
Arizona +3 vs. Seattle
New York Giants +3 vs. New Orleans
Los Angeles Chargers -4.5 vs. San Francisco
Pittsburgh -3.5 vs. Baltimore
Denver +3 vs. Kansas City
BYE: Washington, Carolina
