Written By Billy Attridge
NFL Week 2 is here, and so are all the “hot takes” from just 60 minutes of football. As sports bettors, its critical not to over (or under) react based on what our eyes saw last. Digging into the metrics will usually tell a slightly different story than what we saw from over a 3-hour period. There are some very intriguing Week 2 storylines. Will there be offensive fireworks at Heinz field? Is the team we saw on Monday Night Football the real New York Jets, or will Dolphins head coach Adam Gase do a better job than Jim Bob Cooter disguising his offense? Finally, is the Giants/Cowboys line telling us not to UNDER react in the Sunday Night Football showdown?
Kansas City @ Pittsburgh Over 52.5 (-110):
This total opened 50 at BetOnline.AG, went down to 49.5 before a wave of professional money hammered the over; pushing it out to 53, where it met some resistance. The Chiefs and quarterback Patrick Mahomes went into Los Angeles and lit the Chargers up, scoring 31 points along with a punt return from the always-electric Tyreek Hill. Reid used a college-style attack, and was successful in getting Hill the ball with room to run. The Chiefs defense, on the other hand, was not so good. They allowed the Chargers a 57% success rate on offense, and 8 explosive pass plays. Running backs Gordon and Ekeler feasted out of the backfield, with a combined 14 catches for 189 yards. Pittsburgh managed to eke out a tie, despite a poor performance from Big Ben (8.2 yards per attempt not too shabby) and a -5 turnover margin. I expect Pittsburgh to bounce back in their home opener on the offensive end (hopefully targeting RB Connor in the pass game), and this Chiefs defense can do little to stop them. The over is a real position.
*Bonus: Pittsburgh has dropped to -4 across the market. Expect that number to rise before kick.
BetOnline.Ag Bonus Codes: 75BTB first time (75% Bonus); 50BTB for reloads (50% Bonus)
Miami +3 (-120) @ New York Jets:
We head to the Meadowlands, where the Jets opened a 3.5-point favorite, before dropping down to the current price. When we look back at the market on this game before last week’s results, we saw New York -1. Fast forward to Tuesday, one day after the Jets went into Detroit and spoiled their home opener, with an impressive defensive debut (later revealed they were on to the Lions hand signals) and a solid performance from rookie Sam Darnold. The Dolphins quietly took care of business at home versus the Titans, in a game that feels like is garnering very little attention nationally. The age-old adage “We remember what we saw last” is very pertinent in the gambling world, and this number reflects that. Recreational bettors seem to be gravitating towards New York, but there’s a reason the hooks (3.5’s) have disappeared. Bottom-line, this line opened a bit too high, and I expect the line to continue to drop off the key number. The news of Josh Sitton being lost for the year is a huge blow to the Dolphins offensive line, he’s one of the best guards in the NFL and a position the Dolphins have been trying to figure out for the last decade.
For Breakdowns of the biggest Week 2 NFL games listen to Bet the Board podcast
New York Giants @ Dallas Under 42.5 (-106):
This classic NFC East rivalry is one of the more interesting games of the week from a market perspective. On the look-ahead lines prior to Week 1, Dallas was installed as a 6-point favorite. Now, after opening 3.5, they are down to -3. This is where we normally hear chatter that there is extreme line value on the Cowboys. But let’s dig deeper. Last week, Dallas only managed 4.1 yards per play and a 33% success rate on offensive (the film looked worse). The offensive line without Travis Frederick struggled to get the run game going, Dallas mustered 1 explosive pass play, and averaged 3.9 yards per attempt. The Giants struggled themselves offensively (29% successful play rate) despite being +0.3 in yards per play, and looked strong defensively especially against the run (Dallas’ calling card). If the Cowboys can’t run, their offense stalls. The Giants have the edge in the trenches on this side of the ball. With early professional money hitting this game Under 44, 43.5 and 43 it has a good chance to close lower than the current total despite being a stand-alone prime-time game.
Vegas Look-Ahead Lines for NFL Week 3:
Cleveland -1.5 vs. New York Jets
Atlanta -3 vs. New Orleans
Kansas City -4 vs. San Francisco
Miami -4 vs. Oakland
Minnesota –15 vs. Buffalo
Philadelphia –7 vs. Indianapolis
Washington vs. Green Bay (N/A – Aaron Rodgers)
Carolina -4.5 vs. Cincinnati
Jacksonville vs. Tennessee (N/A – Marcus Mariota)
Baltimore -5.5 vs. Denver
Houston -6 vs. New York Giants
LA Rams -5.5 vs. LA Chargers
Chicago -2.5 @ Arizona
Seattle -3 vs. Dallas
New England -6.5 @ Detroit
Pittsburgh -4 @ Tampa Bay
