Written By @Hookslide23
The advice I’m about to bestow upon you just might be the most important advice I’ll ever give when it comes to sports betting. It’s more important than knowing how to calculate your edge and overcome the vig; it’s more important than knowing how to find +EV parlays; it’s more important than knowing when to cash out.
So here it is, my Golden Rule of sports betting: don’t bet when the betting’s bad!
“Oh, thaaaaaanks, Hook! That’s so freaking brilliant,” I hear you say in overly sarcastic tones, because you are an overly sarcastic person who doesn’t care that you’re interrupting my column right now, “I could have figured that out for myself.”
Except, you know as well as I do that acting on this supremely simple advice is so much easier said than done.
You want action, I want action, we all want action. I like having an additional reasons to tune in on NFL Sunday, and if I didn’t have scratch on a few games, I’m not sure how much attention I would pay outside of my local team. What would I even do with my Sundays, read a book or catch up on projects around the house? Ha! Blasphemy!
But during this past week of games, that’s exactly where I found myself. Perhaps this scenario will seem familiar to you?
I was eyeballing the Lions Thanksgiving Day, because the true odds looked fairly close to a coin flip from where I stood. But the moneyline payout didn’t make the bet profitable. I pulled up my trusty spreadsheet, punched in my true odds, punched in the moneyline figures, and the column that shows my edge on every bet was clear: negative numbers, pal, big flashing red lights, DO NOT BET. So I quickly logged out of my BetOnline.AG account before doing something I would regret in three short hours.
The same was true of the Cowboys, and the Saints. I liked the matchups, I could have been persuaded to place some underdog bets at the right price, but the right price was not to be had.
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This is where it gets extremely difficult for the sports bettor.
I saw my fun-filled NFL weekend crumbling around me as I plugged in the numbers for each game; the calculations kept coming back, “not a +EV bet, old chap, best if you just lay off.”
Little beads of sweat started forming on my forehead, my neck started twitching involuntarily, and worst of all, I started looking for excuses to bet.
How strong is your willpower? When you have no action and bets don’t look appealing, you start squinting. “Well,” you start to rationalize, “I know I’ll lose money in the long-run, but I think I can still win a few of these matchups.”
Or worse, you start fudging the numbers. “Oh, did I say the Lions true odds were 42%? I’m sure I meant 49%.”
Anything to have some money in play for the weekend, right?
“Ok, Hook, you’ve made your point,” you say, interrupting my writing once again with zero regard for my feelings, “but is this really that big of a deal?”
Yes, because knowing when to say “no” to the betting board and having the willpower to walk away is how you avoid forming bad habits. It’s how you help prevent losing money long-term. It’s how you maintain your edge and keep yourself from entrusting your bankroll entirely to the whims of Lady Luck and Random Chance.
Sometimes, keeping your money off the table is as good for your bankroll as winning a bet. Losers cost you the bet and vig, winners only gain you a position.
