NFL Week 13 Market Moves and Week 14 Vegas Look Ahead Lines

Written By Billy Attridge

For this weeks market moves we’ll take a look at three pivotal match-ups surely to play a role in playoff seeding.  The Patriots streak of 5 straight covers is on the line in Western New York with Tyrod’s Bills looking for a spot in the postseason.  What’s triggering that huge line move on the Philadelphia Eagles?  The Bengals took professional money the first meeting in Pittsburgh this season, will the home dog attract sharp money again?  As always, we head to the desert for an early glance at the Vegas look ahead lines for Week 14.

New England @ Buffalo +8.5 (-105):

BetOnline.Ag installed the Patriots 9-point favorites on the road against a Bills team they have historically dominated (15-2 their last 17 trips to Orchard Park).  Buffalo is coming off an impressive road victory over the Chiefs (maybe more of an indictment of Kansas City’s offensive struggles), while New England is back on the highway for a third time in four weeks.  With 80% of the tickets coming in on the road favorite, there’s little doubt who sportsbooks will need come Sunday.  The biggest battle is in the trenches, specifically when Buffalo has the ball.  New England ranks 29th in Rush Defense Efficiency, and even though Buffalo isn’t overly efficient running the ball (23rd Rush Success Rate), doing so successfully will not only help set-up their pass game, but keeps Brady’s offense on the sideline.  With all of the public support, this line could inch near the key number of 10, where I fully expect to see professional money on the dog.

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Philadelphia @ Seattle +5.5 (-108):

In terms of opening numbers, line movement, and potential value, this game between the Eagles and Seahawks has it all.  Let’s start from the beginning.  While we didn’t have an article last week with look-ahead lines, the Westgate had this number Philadelphia -6 before last week’s results.  The Eagles did what they’ve done all year; greatly out-perform the market destroying Chicago at home.  Seattle went on the road and covered as 7-point favorites against the 49ers (only 5.0 yards per play).  So naturally, this number opens Eagles -3 (sarcasm) at some of the sharpest shops in the world.  A 3-point adjustment in favor of the home team despite the Eagles continuing to look like Super Bowl favorites?  Professional money jumped on Philadelphia, laying -3 and -3.5, and now we sit at the current number with +6 available in the market.  At +6, this is obviously a different handicap.  The Eagles are garnering 70% of spread tickets at this point, and it will be interesting to see how high this number goes before we see resistance.  At +6.5 we could see a buy to +7, either locking up a huge middle or grabbing a preseason Super bowl favorite in “must win” mode as a large home underdog.

[ For more information on the biggest Week 13 NFL games listen to Bet the Board podcast ]

Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati +5.5 (-111):

For the Monday night clash between AFC North rivals, BetOnline.Ag opened Pittsburgh -6.5 (-110), and it’s since come down to as low as -5.  With Cincinnati holding a 5-6 record, this feels like their season, as they need to keep pace with the Ravens, Bills, and Chargers, who are all vying for an AFC wildcard spot.  What has drawn my attention to this game is the number from the previous meeting this season (Week 7) where the Bengals closed 4-point ‘dogs on the road, and drew significant professional money.  Despite this game being played 6 weeks later, my power numbers have not changed that drastically to call for an adjustment like we’ve seen.  Pittsburgh’s secondary showed some flaws against the Titans and Packers with Joe Haden down — and it should be interesting to see if A.J. Green and the Bengals can capitalize.  Pittsburgh also has a Sunday night game on deck against their hated rival, Baltimore, and while I wouldn’t suggest they are looking past the Bengals on Monday night, next week against the Ravens is the game likely to lock up the division.  Despite 70% of the tickets on Pittsburgh, I think we’ll continue to see movement towards the dog in this spot, especially if books have a decent day financially on Sunday.

Week 14 Vegas Look Ahead Lines courtesy of the Westgate Superbook:

Home                                      Spread                                    Away

Falcons                                    -3                                             Saints

Buccaneers                              N/A                                         Lions

Bengals                                   -6.5                                          Bears

Bills                                         -7                                             Colts

Jaguars                                   -3                                             Seahawks

Chiefs                                      -6                                             Raiders

Panthers                                  -2.5 (-120)                               Vikings

Browns                                    +3.5                                         Packers

Texans                                     -5.5                                          49ers

Chargers                                  -5.5                                          Redskins

Broncos                                   -3                                             Jets

Cardinals                                 +3                                            Titans

Rams                                       +3                                            Eagles

Giants                                      +3.5                                         Cowboys

Steelers                                    -7.5                                          Ravens

Dolphins                                  +11.5                                       Patriots

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