Written By @AllStaples
“Why do we believe that in all matters the odd numbers are more powerful?” -Pliny the Elder
- The Beat: Florida State +16, +16.5, +17 at Clemson
The Bad: Clemson 31, Florida State 14
The Takeaway: Florida State backers, I know it’s not much, but there is something more honorable about losing to a front door cover versus the back door cover. It’s like being the victim of a white-collar crime versus a snatch and run in an alleyway. It’s more elegant. Anyway, the score stood at 17-14 Clemson when a Florida State fumble recovery with 6:46 in the fourth quarter seemed to cement a FSU cover and, perhaps, fuel an enormous upset. All that excitement lasted exactly 10 seconds after a costly James Blackman interception. FSU never had another first down and Clemson scored two touchdowns; the dagger with 37 seconds left to play. Ouch.
Props to Steve Levy for the classic: “And that will be an important score for some” after the late covering Clemson score. Even better was Brian Griese (either having no clue or delivering an Oscar-worthy performance) responding innocently with: “Not only for some, but for everybody. You have to win but you have to win convincingly…” Good stuff.
[ Don’t forget to listen to Monday’s NFL Podcast for a Dolphins – Panthers Preivew! ]
- The Beat: Navy -3, -4, -4.5 versus SMU
The Bad: Navy 43, SMU 40
The Takeaway: It’s Veteran’s Day weekend – what better time to take Navy and the points? BetOnline.Ag moved from Navy -4.5 all the way down to -1.5 with Midshipmen quarterback Zach Abey out. That would be very important to some. Things looked promising as the Navy rolled to a 34-11 halftime lead, but the Mustangs roared back to tie it at 40. With 1:24 left to play, the Mids had a 2nd and goal from the SMU 6 — and then either a brilliant or horrible play call transpired, but certainly a vicious Bad Beat.
Navy quarterback Garret Lewis was rushing toward the end zone for a touchdown (and likely cover), when he intentionally dropped to the ground at the SMU 1-yard line, allowing the clock to continue to run and forcing SMU to burn its final time out. However, Navy failed on a 3rd and goal, so the Mids were left to kick (without their starting kicker!) an 18-yarder as time expired to win the game. Following the game, Navy coach Ken Niumatalolo admitted the play was intentional and seemed a bit chastened.
I’m sorry, Navy, but it’s un-American to not cover a game on Veteran’s Day weekend when you have the chance!
[ BetOnline.Ag Bonus Codes: 75BTB first time deposit (75% Bonus); 50BTB for reloads (50% Bonus) ]
- The Beat: Texas Christian University at Oklahoma OVER 61 through 63.5
The Bad: Oklahoma 38, TCU 20
The Takeaway: At halftime, there were 55 combined points scored including a 33-yard Baker Mayfield to Rodney Anderson strike with 7 seconds left to play the half. At that point, odds were a surprisingly reasonable 70 percent. More compelling was the fact that the Sooners hadn’t been held scoreless for an entire half this season. Still, over bettors only needed 9 – a touchdown and a kick – to cash a ticket. You will notice only one, singular highlight from the second half in this clip:
And that’s the only highlight from the second half! There was no more scoring. The Horned Frogs were even unable to complete the 2-point conversion following the touchdown. Both teams drove the ball well enough to change field position but not well enough to tally any more points.
Fun fact: There were more punts than points scored in the second half.
- The Beat: Boise State at + 6.5 Colorado State
The Bad: Boise State 59, Colorado State 52
The Takeaway: Colorado State took a 28-3 lead with 11:19 left in the second quarter and ESPN slapped a 94.9 percent win probability on CSU. The Rams were looking for their first ever win against the Broncos and looked poised to do so with a still-comfortable 14 point lead and 3:02 left to play in the game. ESPN upped their win probability to a whopping 99.7 percent – hey ESPN, it might be time to 86 the use of win probability!
Everything fell apart for Colorado State. A Brett Rypien touchdown pass, helped by an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty, trimmed the Ram lead to 7 with 1:41 left. Boise State then recovered the onside kick and, five plays later, we’re tied at 52. In overtime, the Broncos continued rolling with an Alexander Mattison touchdown run. The Rams responded by driving to the Boise State 6-yard line. You can see all the highlights of this miraculous Bad Beat in all its glory:
For Ram fans, it’s not the unlikely loss – they always lose to the Broncos. But failing to cover the +6.5 after leading 28 – 3? Who do they think they are, the Atlanta Falcons?
If you see a Bad Beat, say something. I’m @AllStaples on Twitter.
