“What’s the most you’ve ever lost on a coin toss?” -Cormac McCarthy, No Country for Old Men
A second Cormac quote seemed appropriate given the coin toss nature of this week’s Bad Beats. To wrap up the worst beats of the week in NFL, we must return to the scene of the crime and that was a 1st half total which will live in infamy for many Bet the Board listeners.
- The Beat: Lions at Giants, 1st HALF TOTAL 21.5
The Bad: Lions 17, Giants 7
The Takeaway: As Payneinsider noted on the Bet the Board podcast, there were hints of a Bad Beat brewing early in Monday night’s game. A 1st quarter, 3rd & 12 touchdown pass from Matthew Stafford, a tipped ball leading to an Eli Pick and another 3rd and goal from the 8 touchdown strike from Stafford to Ebron. But the most indelible image from the game came just before halftime:
According to Pro Football Reference, there have been 68 successful field goals from a distance of greater than 56 yards. Of those field goals, 31 have been indoors or altitude-assisted in Denver. That leaves only 37 outdoor field goals kicked from a distance longer than the Matt Prater kick. For Bad Beat connoisseurs, take note of the improbability of an oblong ball striking the crossbar perfectly to somehow bounce straight up in the air, drift a bit to the left and through the uprights. It’s one thing when you happen to be on a Bad Beat; it’s quite another when the Bad Beat seems to travel through a series of mathematic and geometric improbabilities to really give you a case of the Mondays.
- The Beat: West Virginia -22.5 through -24.5 at Kansas
The Bad: West Virginia 56, Kansas 34
The Takeaway: To me, what makes a Bad Beat truly bad is when there are wild swings of emotions regarding the bet. And, if you listen closely, you can still hear the cries of degenerates everywhere begging for that field goal to be kicked on 4th & 2 from the Kansas 2-yard line with a minute left. A score would have provided the cover for WVU. Still, if you got the number early enough (the game opened at -18.5 at BetOnline.AG), you were golden. If not, you were at the mercy of fate.
The WVU cover looked promising when, prior to halftime, Kansas QB Peyton Bender’s pick 6 extended the WVU score out to 22. And then things turned. A late Kansas field goal (an enormous play, in retrospect) concluded the half and two 3rd quarter scores trimmed the Mountaineers lead to 35-27. If you had that -24.5, you probably gave it up here. But, flash to the 4th, and the Mounties were up 22 once again. Bender throws another interception; this one was picked off by linebacker Al-Rasheed Benton. For a cruel second, it looks like Benton is going to take it all the way back for a score, but he’s pushed out of bounds at the 8. From there, three runs net 6 yards and then we have the decision to not kick the field goal!? What about the boosters, Coach Holgorssn!?
New favorite thing: announcers obliquely referencing gambling during the broadcast. Just prior to the 4th down play: “It may be late in the game but it’s a very important play … here for West Virginia.” After the failed 4th down: “A very important stop for Kansas.”
- The Beat: Steelers at Bears, 1st HALF TOTAL UNDER 22.5
The Bad: Bears 17, Steelers 7
The Takeaway: The Steelers were setting up to push the half total over and then this happened.
If you had the under, for a second it looked like the ball was knocked through the end zone for a touchback. Now, I don’t have enough room here to detail what happened next, and frankly, it still makes zero sense to me. Regardless, the result was the Bears were given an untimed, free down from the 1-yard line – with the under still in play with a stop – and promptly committed a false start penalty. The Bears then settled for a field goal which, finally, mercifully, pushed the total over.
That 6 point swing also greatly affected Chicago’s probable odds of covering the spread. Prior to the blocked kick, the Bears had a 65.2% chance of covering the +7 closing spread. Six seconds later (plus the untimed down), the Bears had an 81.5% chance of covering the +7. The same play increased the Bears outright win odds from 48.4% to 69.5%.
- The Beat: Lions +3.5 and +3 versus Falcons
The Bad: Falcons 30, Lions 26
The Takeaway: Some Beats are so gut-wrenching that they should elicit sympathy from anyone not on the game. It doesn’t really matter if the call on the apparent Tate touchdown was correct or not (Lion coach Jim Caldwell said he thought the call was correct); the Beat was still brutal especially with the automatic 10 second runoff to end the game. In fairness to Atlanta bettors, the Lions did need 55- and 57-yard field goals from Matt Prater AND a pick-6 to get this close, but still.
Also, props to Payneinsider for touting Darius Slay Jr. on the podcast – two picks against Matt Ryan including this important stop near the goal line. Glover Quin also had the pick 6 against Ryan. The Lion secondary held Ryan to less than 300 yards and more interceptions (3) than touchdowns (2) which was good enough…for heartbreak.
Fun fact: since 1958, the Lions have the same number of playoff victories as they do post game food fires! Never change, Honolulu Blue, never change.
Have a Bad Beat candidate? I’m at @AllStaples on Twitter or tweet using the hashtag #BTBbadbeat to discuss.
