In making my maiden voyage writing for Bet The Board, I’m here to present angles that will help navigate the waters of the 2017 U.S. Open. I started writing fantasy golf for Rotoworld in January of 2012, and made numerous contributions to Golfweek Magazine over the years. Golf betting and fantasy golf go hand-in-hand, so I’ll try and divulge angles as to why certain players are fade bait, or viable options for your betting tickets and DFS lineups.
For the first time ever, the U.S. Open lands in Wisconsin and will become the sixth public venue to host our nation’s championship. The 117th edition will be the fourth championship since 2002 to be held on a track for the first time, joining Bethpage Black, Torrey Pines South and Chambers Bay. As you’ve already read once or 200 times this week, the kettle moraine covers over 650 acres; course architects created an “American Original” that is neither parkland or links, but rather rolling American countryside.
From fast fescue fairways to perfectly manicured A-4 Bentgrass greens and over 7,600 yards, Erin Hills will present a U.S. Open unlike any other. As with most USGA Championships, great shots will be rewarded and poor shots penalized. As always with golf, Mother Nature will be a factor in the proceedings. Erin Hills, unlike most U.S. Open sites, will have larger-than-normal fairways so accuracy, while always important, won’t be paramount. The course was designed with Mother Nature and the wind in mind and the larger fairways ensure playability. Shots that miss fairways this large should be subjected to punishment.
Most of the green complexes are raised and heavily bunkered with some having false fronts. Wide fairways would suggest this turns into a second-shot course and whoever pegs the most GIR (greens in regulation) will have many looks at birdie. Another glaring difference this week is the closely-mown areas greenside, instead of the traditional collar of rough. Players who miss the greens and bunkers will have multiple choices on how to attack, as the USGA always loves to test the 14 clubs in the bag and 6 inches between the ears. Those who find the bunkers will be penalized, so tee-to-green players will stand out for me. With the course being closed for an entire year, the putting surfaces are reportedly pure and perfect, so don’t be surprised to see putts holed. This will not be the lightning quick Poa annua of Oakmont or the bumpy, burnt Poa of Chambers Bay. The greens are not the defense of the course, as they roll true and very mellow as opposed to slick and undulating.
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Large fairways will bring in plenty of dreamers this week and penalize the hyper-accurate, especially if wet. Slightly larger-than-average greens should reward ball-strikers who can find the proper placements. If the Bentgrass is running pure and true, the advantage that the great putters have will also be neutralized unless they crank up speed on the greens; weather will also help determine that factor. With four par fives on the card, perfect greens and large fairways, I’m going to lean on the big boys who can knock it and find plenty of GIR.
For those looking for clues from the 2011 U.S. Amateur, please remember that event was in August on a brownish/green course under different conditions. Rain began to fall Monday night and could continue on Tuesday. Wednesday holds an 80% chance, while Thursday clears up for the opening round. Showers are a coin flip in the morning on both weekend days, with Friday calling for 60% chance of scattered storms. Erin Hills looked quite green Monday, even though its only enjoyed .43 inches of rain in the month of June. I don’t believe a few days of scattered rain storms will affect the setup, or slow anything down.
Winning you a Bar Bet Part I: This will be the first time a U.S. Open will play to par 72 since 1992 at Pebble Beach!
Now, let’s break down the field!
The Favorites…
Rickie Fowler – Player with the most balanced bag in the field goes right back to the top after missing the cut in Memphis. Fowler checks in #2 SG: Total highlighted by his excellent putting and short game. He’s third in scoring and in birdie average, and has a win and four other top 10’s this season.
Dustin Johnson – Should have won in 2015. He did win last year. If you would have asked me a month ago, I would have suggested he was the favorite again this week. This is why guys in my world don’t answer questions in February like; “give me your four major winners this year.” One slip down the stairs at Augusta, baby #2 due any moment, and that’s DJ’s reality. As the kids say, life comes at you pretty fast, but he’s still my second choice. I don’t think one MC at Memorial caused him to forget how to overpower courses, and with a par 72 I like him even more.
Jon Rahm – Tied with Dustin Johnson for most top-five finishes since last July with eight. It was exactly a year ago Rahm played his last tournament before turning pro finishing T-23 and low amateur at Oakmont. This season he’s won for the first time at big, bad Torrey Pines, and added six other top 10’s. He’s fearless with the driver and ranks in the top 10 in too many categories to list.
Jason Day – Played in six U.S. Opens and hit the top 10 five times including the last four years (one of those years he had vertigo and barely made it through the tournament). Now he gets a chance to swing driver on some of the biggest fairways in championship history? Yes, please! There’s nobody better around the greens statistically and now he’s healthy, so that’s an excellent combination.
Jordan Spieth – Leads the Tour SG: Approach the green and is second in scoring and birdie average so he’s hardly reeling. He’s in any conversation when events like this roll around because he makes plenty of birdies, but more importantly plenty of pars. It won’t hurt that he’s seen this place in action, similarly to Chambers Bay, as he played the 2011 U.S. Amateur on this track. I’m not sure there’s a better grinder in the field.
Rory McIlroy – Guys returning from long layoffs always make me scratch my head, but there are always exceptions to rules. McIlroy tried to return to Wentworth for the BMW PGA Championship but he wasn’t ready, so he backed his recovery to this week. McIlroy’s best, for my money, is the best that there is, but we haven’t seen it in some time. He has a knack of grinding away even without his best stuff when others would wilt. He would love a long, wet track, a la Congressional where he set the record in 2012. Surprisingly, he only has one top 10 in the last five years in this event.
Adam Scott – Played the weekend in his last five including finishes of T-9, T-4 and T-18 last year at Oakmont. There aren’t many better in the GIR department, and that’s why the Aussie continues to collect big checks most weeks he tees it up. He picked up a T-9 at Augusta, T-6 at THE PLAYERS and T-10 last week in Memphis.
Sergio Garcia – Leads the Tour in scoring average thanks to his excellent numbers tee-to-green. The Masters champ is the only one in the field who has his sights on the first half of the grand slam this week, but I doubt that’s on his mind. Garcia made 15 of 17 U.S. Open cuts including 9 in a row – and he appeared to like smooth Bentgrass at Augusta in April.
Justin Rose – 2013 champ has plenty of power to get it around, plus he checks in the top 10 in scoring average and birdie average. Over a third of Rose’s made cuts in majors have resulted in top 10’s, and he started out majors with a solo second at Augusta. #BigGameHunter.
Kevin Kisner – Sizzling after his win at Colonial and T-6 at Memorial, Kisner’s proven that he doesn’t mind a bit of Bentgrass on the greens. He’s Rickie Fowler “light”, and that’s meant as a compliment as he checks in fifth in SG: Total and registers in the top 40 of the major statistical categories. He’s absolutely solid through the entire bag.
Tier Two…
Billy Horschel – Never missed a cut in four U.S. Opens, and has won and finished T-4 in the last month so he’s converging. The fire burns hot in this one so don’t be afraid to get close.
Paul Casey – I’m not leading with him on any fantasy golf teams or betting tickets, but he makes excellent support staff in DFS lineups and deep leagues. The Englishman has four top 12’s and a T-22 in his last five on Tour, and resides Top 10 GIR.
Matt Kuchar – The length bothers me here, but Kuchar usually finds a way to get it in the hole. He would LOVE firm and fast to be on the menu, but he’s still played the weekend in the last seven years. After his 81 at THE PLAYERS, Kucher bounced back with T-9, T-12 and T-4, all on Bentgrass in his last three starts.
Kevin Chappell – The first time most heard Chappell’s name was at Congressional, as he fired 11-under-par in the final three rounds to finish T-3. He backed that up with T-10 the following year at Olympic Club. He MC last year at Oakmont, but this spring he’s won for the first time on Tour at Valero and he was T-4 last week in Memphis. #Hot.
Off the Beaten Path…
Brendan Steele – After winning the first event of the season it wouldn’t have been surprising to see him meander along. That hasn’t been the case by a long shot. He hasn’t MC this season and added a best T-27 at Augusta and T-6 at THE PLAYERS on big boy courses with big boy fields.
Bud Cauley – His spring was smoking hot as he threw up consecutive top 10’s between mid-April and mid-May. Hopefully, his T-41 at Colonial and T-25 at Memorial threw the public off his scent. He was T-2 GIR at Memorial last time out.
Jamie Lovemark – Coming off his best consecutive finishes in the last three months, Lovemark’s length should be to his advantage again this week. In his only other U.S. Open at Chambers Bay he posted three of his four rounds at par or better. #Value.
Russell Knox – Top 50 GIR and top 15 in fairways never hurts in this championship, but he’s going to have to get the ball in the hole. He flashed signs of life two weeks ago at Memorial opening 71-70, and posted a 67 to close up shop in Memphis last week for his best round in two months. Hush.
Look to Fade in Matchups at BetOnline.AG…
Bubba Watson – With semi-blind shots and usually a set-up that has driven him crazy in the past, I’m passing. His top 25 at Memorial was his only top 25 in 2017, and Bubba’s only played the weekend in three of his last six tries at this event with nothing better than T-32.
Brandt Snedeker – Withdrew from THE PLAYERS with a hand injury and took five weeks off. Returned with MC at AT&T Byron Nelson and followed that with T-48 at DEAN and DELUCA. His past history in this event is tempting, but there are too many other healthy horses to saddle this week.
Jim Furyk – His record in this event sounds like he’s an automatic, but his current form screams the opposite. Big ballpark, and recent struggles makes Oakmont feel like it was a very long time ago in his native Western Pennsylvania.
Jimmy Walker – Currently battling Lyme disease and hasn’t teed it up since THE PLAYERS. This course would be an excellent fit, but I can’t rely that he’s ready to go after the layoff.
Danny Willett – For those that follow the OWGR rankings, Willett still remains in the top 30. For those of you who tune in for the majors only and remember he’s a major champion, I’ll remind you that he withdrew from THE PLAYERS with a back issue, and followed that with T-58 at the BMW Championship at Wentworth.
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Mike Glasscott is a renowned golf expert making contributions to Rotoworld.com and Golfweek Magazine. You can hear ‘Glass’ frequently on WGCL Radio and interact with him on Twitter @MikeGlasscott.
