It’s time for your weekly installment of look ahead lines and market moves.
We have double the data to work with entering Week 3 than we did last week. The key, especially at the beginning of the season, is to make sure we’re accounting for major disparities in strength of schedule. Remember you don’t want to over react early in a season but at the same time you can’t completely ignore 120 minutes of sample.
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LA Chargers @ Kansas City -6 (-115)
Kansas City was installed 7.5-point favorites on the look-ahead line before Week 2. That number was adjusted down to 7 following the Chiefs collapse in the 4th quarter against the Baltimore Ravens. Early money hit the underdog at a full touchdown. Since that first wave of Chargers money the market initially held strong under the key number but has. started to drift upward.
No D in KC
The Chiefs defense hasn’t been good, there’s no sugar coating it. Through two games Kansas City grades out dead-last against the run in a multitude of advanced metrics. The pass defense hasn’t fared much better currently ranking bottom 5 in overall efficiency. However, with every stat-line there is an underlying story. Let’s consider the Chiefs opponents to start the season.
Running Dogs
Cleveland boasts the most efficient offense in the NFL running behind the #1 rated offensive line in football guided by a terrific play designer and caller in Kevin Stefanski. After a physical come from behind win at home against the Browns, the Chiefs went on the road to Baltimore. They once again faced a prolific ground attack and the defensive line was bullied. Kansas City has experimented with kicking Chris Jones outside but returns were not favorable against run heavy offenses. Needless to say there is work to be done. It becomes incredibly difficult to have a successful pass defense if you’re getting gashed for 6.0 yards a carry.
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Scheduling Reprieve
The good news for the Chiefs is they don’t take on another smash mouth opponent this week. The Chargers have placed right tackle Bryan Buluga on IR. In addition to the Bulaga injury, center Corey Linsley, guard Matt Feiler, and backup tackle Storm Norton have not graded out well according to Pro Football Focus. Given all the media buzz surrounding the poor play from the Chiefs defense, expect a fully engaged defense for a pivotal divisional match-up.
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Power Outage
Meanwhile, the Chargers are 31st in rushing success rate defense and 28th in pass success rate defense through 2 games. Kansas City shouldn’t struggle finding opportunities to move the ball. The potential for a run heavy approach against a defensive front that hasn’t shown an ability to stop the ground attack also exists. Corner Chris Harris and defensive tackle Justin Jones did not practice again Thursday. Joey Bosa and Derwin James also found themselves on a “precautionary” DNP Thursday as well. It’s imperative to monitor the status of these 4 players as we approach Sunday. This number could certainly tick down to -6 flat by the weekend but if it moved further, there would be a difference of opinion from other professionals looking to lay -5.5 on the Chiefs. I side with the latter.
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Miami +4.5 (-110) @ Las Vegas
The Dolphins roll into Vegas off a disappointing performance against Buffalo. Gone is Tua; likely out for 2-3 weeks minimum with fractured ribs. In steps the consummate veteran Jacoby Brissett to assume the reigns. Vegas was listed anywhere from pick’em to -1.5 in the look ahead market and we’ve seen quite an adjustment based off Tua’s availability.
Raider Way
The Raiders have two big wins under their belt as underdogs against AFC North opponents. The most recent is accompanied by a small asterisk. Pittsburgh ended up without the services of Devin Bush, Joe Haden ( both pregame), TJ Watt and DT Tyson Alualu (both in-game). Credit to Las Vegas for capitalizing on the opportunity for a road win in a tough environment. Carr was sensational in the win and the defensive line stepped up in a difficult spot. Now the pressure mounts for the Raiders. They go from being the underdog in back-to-back games to a home favorite versus a Dolphins side missing their starting signal caller.
Phins out of Water
Miami’s loss to Buffalo was not your typical dumpster performance given the 35-0 score line. The Dolphins went 0-4 on 4th downs, 0-3 in the Red Zone, and allowed the Bills to go 4-4 on touchdowns inside their 20. Miami wasted chances early in the game to keep it close. Turnovers played a major role in the disastrous final score. Now, with a whole week of prep and a gameplan tailored for Brissett expect a more inspired effort. Sunday also marks the long-awaited debut of game breaker Will Fuller. Miami has the potential to pull the outright upset here if they can consistently attack the Raiders suspect (albeit improved) secondary.
Raid the death star
The key for Miami is keeping this upgraded Raider defensive line out of the backfield. Coach Brian Flores has talked about moving around some building blocks to make that a reality. There is also a trust in Flores developing unique game plans to stifle opponent’s best offensive attributes (opponents not named Buffalo). I fully expect Flo to have some wrinkles ready for Darren Waller and company. There’s a good chance this number trends below the secondary key number of 4 with a distant possibility of it closing -3.
Week 4 Look-Ahead Lines via FanDuel Sportsbook
Jacksonville at Cincinnati -6.5
Washington -1 at Atlanta
Detroit at Chicago -6
Tennessee -6.5 at NY Jets
Cleveland -1 at Minnesota
Indianapolis at Miami -2.5
Carolina at Dallas -3.5
NY Giants at New Orleans -6.5
Kansas City -6.5 at Philadelphia
Houston at Buffalo -15.5
Arizona at LA Rams -5.5
Seattle at San Francisco -3
Baltimore -1.5 at Denver
Pittsburgh at Green Bay -6.5
Tampa Bay -5.5 at New England
Las Vegas at LA Chargers -3
