Written by Drew Borland of Sport Source Analytics
You may have read an article on this very website, 5 Traits of a Successful Sports Bettors, a critical trait outlined was “Don’t get discouraged”. It’s imperative for all bettors to understand that not all wins and losses are created equal. There are plenty of things that happen in a football game that become outliers or statistical anomalies capable of completely changing a game. Despite what the naysayers tell you it’s absolutely possible to make the right pick and still lose if the game unfolds in an atypical manner. These results are more frequent in college football than the NFL given a much broader spectrum of player talent and overall competence.
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Football Factors
Let’s examine some of those non-typical game occurrences that can turn a deserved win into an undeserved loss instantaneously.
NOTE: All records are from 2016-Present FBS College Football Games.
Turnover Margin
Every bettor hopes teams they’re betting remain -1 or greater for turnovers. However, when you start getting outside that thin margin of error a game becomes increasingly difficult to cover.
-2 TO Margin: Happens 11.1% of the time. Teams are 236-637-14 (27.0%) ATS
-3 TO Margin: Happens 5.25% of the time. Teams are 62-352-4 (15.0%) ATS
-4 TO Margin: Happens 1.9% of the time. Teams are 16-135-2 (10.6%) ATS
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Allowing a Defensive Touchdown
Defensive touchdowns are the definition of major swing play. They occur in 12.3% of college football games. If you are on the wrong side of a defensive score your ATS cover percentage drops to 28.2% (272-693-15). If the side angle isn’t compelling enough it’s also a detriment to totals bettors. Overs hit 61.3% of the time when there is a defensive touchdown by either team.
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Allowing Special Teams Touchdowns
Special Teams touchdowns are momentum plays that swing fortunes. Teams are 165-272-7 (37.8%) in games when allowing a special teams score. Like defensive touchdowns, these also negatively correlate to betting unders as the over hits in these instances 64.2% of the time. Special teams touchdowns also add the double-edge effect forcing a defense to play consecutive series. The points per possession goes up 1.3 points on the drive following a special teams touchdown!
4th Down Stops and Turnovers in the Red Zone
Put simply, losing possession in the Red Zone is taking points off the board. There is an argument to be made these miscues are less about bad luck and more about an opposing team’s defensive skill. Remember, coaches aren’t trying to cover the spread (most of the time), they are trying to win the game. There are many situations in which a Field Goal helps assist a cover but won’t increase a team’s chance of winning games on the scoreboard.
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Playing to win … not to cover
This is why many coaches attempt 4th Downs in the Red Zone in late game situations. What happens when this occurs? Teams are 454-696 (39.5%) ATS when they lose possession one or more times in the Red Zone. The Over crashes as well to a 40.3% success rate. While seemingly innocuous at a macro level, it can be devastating in games with tighter lines. Your chance of covering dips to 35% in games with a line between -7 and +7. It drops all the way to 30% when the closing line is between -3 and +3.
Red Zone Penalties
When an offense doesn’t commit a penalty in the Red Zone, they average 4.98 points per trip. When they do commit an infraction, that figure drops all the way to 3.60. Offensive penalties have a relatively minor effect on the percentage of drives that score points. If a drive has a penalty, the team’s chance of scoring drops from 36.4% to 35.1%. However, red zone penalties are especially cruel for an offenses ability to finish drives with 7 and not 3.
The Takeaway?
You have to accept that games don’t follow a script. Sometimes rare and untimely plays happen that put you on the wrong side of the cover equation. The good news is that disciplined and self-reflecting bettors view situations like these not as being wrong, but as being largely unlucky. If you are diligent about tracking your betting history, you’ll probably find that over time you’ll land on both sides of these situations. However, it is also widely accepted that if you are on the right sides of games, unlucky situations happen more frequently because that is what it takes to beat you.
Regression to the mean
There is another major aspect to this: finding teams week-to-week that have suffered from some of these ATS maladies is a great way to identify value. The betting public has a tendency to look the other way when teams are winning on the scoreboard even if they’re losing on the advanced stat sheet. Numbers prove out that winning/covering games relying on TO Margin, Defensive TDs, Red Zone stops, etc, is not sustainable. Understanding the “why” behind teams covering (and not covering) helps you to both identify future value while understanding when a bet was more susceptible to variance rather than your betting acumen.