It’s been one of “those” starts to the NFL season. After DeVante Parker’s stone cold drop, I immediately envisioned Mac Jones taking a safety and burning our Patriots +3 bet before it actually happened. Nonetheless, we get back on track Week 7 with a Sunday Night Football showdown between the Dolphins and Eagles.
472 PHILADELPHIA EAGLES ML (-135/-140)
Miami has played the easiest schedule in the NFL through six weeks, with their 5 wins coming against teams that have a combined 5-25 record. When the Dolphins stepped up in class against Buffalo, a team whose trench play rivals that of the Eagles, they couldn’t compete.
When Miami Stepped Up in class…
Buffalo was able to make Tua uncomfortable and win enough battles in the run game to slow the Dolphins offense. Tua finished 17th in completion % over expectation+EPA, and only averaged 5.5 air yards per attempt Week 4 in Orchard Park. The Eagles front has helped lead a defense that’s 6th in pass rush win rate and 2nd in defensive rush efficiency. Fletcher Cox returned to the lineup last week, and multiple lineman returned to the practice field this week including Jalen Carter, providing hope to his availability Sunday.
Dolphins Defense a work in Progress
The Dolphins defense has struggled mightily stopping the run, ranking 25th in EPA per rush allowed and 27th in rushing success rate allowed. The unit is 26th in run stop win rate, and only 21st in adjusted line yards. Philadelphia enters the Week 7 with the #1 graded offensive line in run block win rate and that’s translated to the 2nd most efficient run offense. We should see a game-script early that leans heavily on D’Andre Swift and the Eagles run offense especially if Miami continues their high rate of light box usage. That should open explosive pass plays downfield, particularly if lead Miami corner Xavien Howard is nursing a groin strain.
Philadelphia was -2.5 on the look-ahead line, but we saw market adjustment after the Eagles were upset by the Jets thanks to a -4 turnover differential. This price dipped as low as Eagles -1, before a wave of professional money backed Philadelphia on the spread and money line. Let’s back the Birds on the ML at prices of -140 or better. This has the potential to touch the key of 3 if Lane Johnson, Devonta Smith, and Darius Slay play. All three practiced on Thursday.
2023-2024 NFL Market Moves Record: (1-3)
2022-2023 NFL Market Moves Record: (13-6-1)