Attacking a First Half for NFL Week 15
NFL Week 15 takes us to Monday Night Football as the Rams travel to ice cold Lambeau Field to face the Packers. Professional bettors have taken a stance early this week on the side. I think there is a specific way to attack the market for this prime time matchup between Baker Mayfield and Aaron Rodgers.
#1331 LOS ANGELES RAMS FIRST HALF +4 (-115)
Green Bay opened 9-point favorites on the look ahead line for Week 14. The Rams late heroics against Las Vegas created chaos Thursday night. Following that improbable comeback, the Packers re-opened -8. Since then a steady flow of Rams money has shown despite what will be lopsided action for sports books come Monday evening.
Running Is The Way
We’re looking at frigid temperatures with the potential for occasional wind gusts. The Rams continue to fight showing extremely well the past two games exceeding expectation despite a laundry list of injuries. Season long metrics will not show an advantage for Los Angeles but we must evaluate the Rams current form. Baker Mayfield showed competency and confidence less than 48 hours in the Rams building and now has 10 days to further grasp McVay’s offense. Los Angeles is 9th in rushing success rate over the last two games versus Seattle and Las Vegas. Now the Rams face a Packers defense ranked 32nd in adjusted line yards, 32nd in defensive rush efficiency, and 31st in run stop win rate. I’m not sure if Green Bay emphasized stopping the run, they could actually do it.
On the other side of the ball, Green Bay’s strength is running. But they will face a strong Rams defensive front even without Aaron Donald. The Rams still rank 2nd in run stop win rate and 5th in schedule adjusted defensive rush efficiency behind stellar play from Bobby Wagner, Ernest Jones, and Greg Gaines. The Packers offensive line will continue to be without starting left tackle David Bakhtiari, though Romeo Doubs and the receiving core will be at full strength. I am interested to see how Aaron Rodgers thumb holds up with temperatures this cold.
The full game leaked below the key of 7 at many of sharp books this week. With the potential for unseen offensive looks early specifically designed for Baker Mayfield we should grab +4 with the Rams. With the first half total priced 19.5, every half point becomes more valuable. Make sure you shop around and have 4 in your pocket.
NFL Week 16 Look Ahead Lines
New York Jets -2.5 vs Jacksonville
Minnesota -4.5 vs New York Giants
Cleveland -3 vs New Orleans
Detroit -2.5 at Carolina
Cincinnati -3 at New England
Buffalo -10 at Chicago
Tennessee -8.5 vs Houston
Kansas City -9.5 vs Seattle
Baltimore -6.5 vs Atlanta
San Francisco -6.5 Washington
Dallas -1 vs Philadelphia
Pittsburgh -1.5 vs Las Vegas
Miami -4 vs Green Bay
Los Angeles Rams -1 vs Denver
Tampa Bay -3 at Arizona
Los Angeles Chargers -3 at Indianapolis