There was a LOT of movement early this week on a few games we targeted. Unfortunately it limits the actionable information in this week’s column. However we did find one position worth taking in a secondary market that offers good upside.
Dallas heads to Washington for the biggest game we’ve had all season in the NFC East. A Washington Football Team victory puts substantial pressure on the Cowboys to finish strong. Dallas needs that high powered passing attack to awake from its slumber in recent weeks if the ‘Boys are to secure a big road win. As always we get a jump on NFL Week 15 look ahead lines that you can bet right now at Fanduel.
Dallas Cowboys Team Total Over 26.5 (-115):
Dog and under money can be a bettor’s best friend when looking to identify a unique betting opportunity. Team totals are derived from the top line markets of side and total meaning we’ve seen some value actually created by the initial moves.
Perception isn’t Reality
There is a ton of perception baked into this Washington defense at the current moment. Despite ranking 31st in defensive pass success rate, the Football Team’s recent 4-game win streak has resulted in them holding their last four opponents to 21 points or less. All of this has happened without studs Chase Young and Montez Sweat playing a single down (neither will be available this week). However look at the recent run of opposing offenses this defense has faced. Since their bye, Washington has played Tampa Bay, Carolina, Seattle, and Vegas. Keep in mind Tampa played that game without a few key offensive cogs and it was actually the Washington offense taking the air out of the ball in the 4th quarter that led to victory.
It’s not about who you play but when you play them
Carolina boasts one of the worst offensive lines in football. When they took on WFT they started Cam Newton in his first official game back with full reps since being released by the Patriots. Seattle’s offense hasn’t scared anyone in recent weeks possibly saving their rock bottom performance for their trip to DC. Wilson rarely looked DK Metcalf’s way while consistently being pressured behind an O-line that ranks 31st in adjusted sack rate allowed. Last week they played a Raiders team that can’t block a lick and Derek Carr’s security blanket Darren Waller was out. Things may change this week…
Dallas comes into this game with extra rest and a chance to devise new wrinkles off a Thursday night win against the Saints. Dallas has ALL 11 starters ready to go on offense this week. Tyron Smith is healthy, La’el Collins returned last week, and Amari Cooper should be ready for a full workload. The Cowboys offensive line brings something to the table Washington hasn’t seen recently. The numbers don’t lie; 3rd in adjusted line yards, 4th in adjusted sack rate, and 6th in Run Block Win Rate. That spells trouble for a Washington unit that’s thrived on creating pressure with their front 4 and stopping the run.
The Moore You Know
Kellen Moore is smart enough to see his advantages through the air in this game attacking Washington where it’s most vulnerable. Knowing both Elliot and Pollard are banged up, it would make sense for Dallas to test a Washington secondary 30th in defensive pass efficiency with a healthy receiving group. One more thing worth noting; since the loss of Sweat and Young, Washington’s pressure rate has regressed to #13 after hanging inside the Top 10 for the majority of the season. Dallas with extra rest and prep, very good health on both sides of the ball, and a clear advantage through the air lends itself to a friendly team total now below the key number.
Kansas City -3 at LA Chargers
Las Vegas at Cleveland -5
New England -1 at Indianapolis
Washington at Philadelphia -2.5
Carolina at Buffalo -9.5
Dallas -9.5 at NY Giants
Arizona -12.5 at Detroit
Atlanta at San Francisco -7.5
Cincinnati -3 at Denver
Green Bay -2.5 at Baltimore
Seattle at LA Rams -7
New Orleans at Tampa Bay -11.5
Minnesota -4 at Chicago