Written By Billy Attridge
We’re already into Week 11, as this season continues to fly by, as it seems to every year! Analyzing the market in Week 11, we have found a sneaky 1st half total that still provides value at a key number in Carolina. In an AFC East matchup, are the Miami Dolphins being overvalued at this point? Finally, we head to the city of brotherly love where we get a rematch of Super Bowl LII and another 1H total that may be on the move. Before investing this weekend, read below to see why these numbers have moved! As always, we also reveal the Week 12 look-ahead lines!
Atlanta at Carolina 1H Under 24 (-110)
Let’s start with the number, and what the market has revealed to this point in the week. The full game total opened 54 at FoxBet.com, and we’ve seen nothing but strong UNDER money hit the screen since; driving this total all the way down to 49.5 — and there has been little resistance despite crossing key numbers. Breaking down Atlanta when they are on offense, we see a team struggling to run the ball, as they are only 25th in rush efficiency offense, but have had some success moving it through the air (14th in pass efficiency offense). Atlanta will be without one of the best tight ends in football in Austin Hooper, and starting running back Devontae Freeman. The matchup against the Panthers defense is not the best, as Carolina thrives defending the pass, rated 3rd overall in pass defense, but is dead-last against the rush! Fortunately for them, that’s where Atlanta struggles. When the McCaffrey-led Panthers “O” takes the field, they will be challenged to move the football on the ground against a surprisingly good Falcons run defense (10th most efficient), and that’s really how Carolina gets their offense moving. With both offenses facing more difficult matchups than perceived, we could see a surprisingly lower scoring game. I agree with the full game move to the under, and will gladly add more in the 1H direction as long as the key number of 24 is still available.
Buffalo Bills -5.5 at Miami Dolphins:
Back in Week 7, Buffalo closed a 17-point favorite against Miami after being bet up from the opener of -14. The Dolphins cover was never in doubt, despite the Bills returning an onside kick for a touchdown late. Only 4 weeks later, we’ve seen a drastic adjustment in the number, as Miami opened +7.5, and was driven down to as low as +5 at FoxBet.com before we saw money enter the market on Buffalo. Factoring in home field advantage, with Buffalo’s being close to 3.5, and Miami’s hovering around 2, we can see that the market rated the Bills around -13.5 on a neutral field 4 weeks ago, and now currently rate them -7.5. What has changed? Sure, Miami has shown life on both sides of the football, and a hat tip to coach Brian Flores for showing improvement throughout the season, as well. That said, the Dolphins no longer have their best receiver Preston Williams, and their best corner Xavien Howard. Buffalo has remained relatively healthy, and are in the playoff hunt in the AFC. The perception on these two teams has completely flipped, as Miami has covered 5 games in a row, while Buffalo has cooled off. During the cooling down period, a weakness has been revealed on Buffalo’s defense, and that’s stopping the run. Luckily for Buffalo, Miami has not been able to establish a strong run game all season (32nd in offensive rush efficiency), which means they will be playing into Buffalo’s strength. To be honest, I’m not sure where this number closes, but we continue to see support for Buffalo every time the market hits -5.
New England at Philadelphia 1H Under 22.5:
The Birds and Patriots could be the best game on the Week 11 board, as we get a rematch from the 2018 Super Bowl with both teams coming off of their bye week. The full game total opened 46 at FoxBet.com, and we’ve seen some movement towards the under, as we currently sit at 45 depending where you shop. Let’s take a peak at Philadelphia in their current form. Defensively, Philly is getting healthy with Fletcher Cox and Timmy Jernigan back to full strength. Defensive end Brandon Graham is playing at a very high level, as well. The Eagles defensive line, despite their slow start rushing the passer (3 sacks in their first 4 games), have stepped it up with 22 sacks over the last 5 games. The secondary of Mills, Darby, and Maddox is healthy, and over the past two weeks has been trending in the right direction. On the offensive side, we see Alshon Jeffrey is very questionable to play this week, and with DeSean Jackson out indefinitely, we should see Philadelphia (correctly) rely on their run game early and often against the “weakness” of the Patriots defense. With New England, we’ve seen the pass game, and honestly the entire offense, struggle early on despite an extremely easy schedule of opposing defenses. The Patriots are 22nd in yards per play (5.2), have issues on the offensive line due to injuries, and now get to face one of the best defensive lines in football, who prioritizes stopping the run, and does so very well (#1 is defensive rush success rate). Unless we see a fast-paced offensive approach from these teams, and there are whispers of New England going to their “Turbo Package”, the First Half under makes quite a bit of sense.
Vegas Look-Ahead Lines for NFL Week 12:
Houston -5.5 vs. Indianapolis
Cleveland -9 vs. Miami
Buffalo -5.5 vs. Denver
Pittsburgh -7 @ Cincinnati
Chicago -7 vs. New York Giants
Oakland -3 @ New York Jets
New Orleans -7 vs. Carolina
Atlanta -3 vs. Tampa Bay
Washington vs. Detroit (N/A – Matthew Stafford)
Tennessee -2.5 vs. Jacksonville
New England -7 vs. Dallas
San Francisco -3.5 vs. Green Bay
Philadelphia -3 vs. Seattle
LA Rams PICK’em vs. Baltimore