Written By Billy Attridge
In what has been a strange and turbulent NFL season, we’ve got three games on the board that have moved a bit, but may not be done quite yet. Despite the perception of two offensive units, will the total in Miami continue to rise? The Colts go east to take on Pittsburgh in what should be a competitive contest, and there may be an angle in the first half worth exploring. Lastly, we’ll peak at an NFC afternoon game where the spread should continue to trend towards the dog. Before investing this weekend, find out why these numbers have moved and should continue to do so. As always, we trek to the desert and reveal Vegas look ahead lines for NFL Week 10.
New York Jets @ Miami OVER 41 (-110):
This total opened 41 at FoxBet.com, dipped down to 40.5 early in the week, and then we saw a quick position taken on the OVER at that number; driving this price back to the key of 41. Looking at the reasoning behind the move, we can see that both offenses have faced above average schedules of opposing defenses thus far (Miami 13th toughest, Jets 3rd), so this matchup should lend itself favorable to both units. New York is 25th in defensive pass success rate, and Miami, under Ryan Fitzpatrick, has a little more life in the passing game with the emergence of Preston Williams and a healthy DeVante Parker. Looking at the matchup on the other side of the ball, Miami has now lost their best corner Xavien Howard for the year, and even before that loss, ranked dead-last in the NFL in defensive pass success rate. If there was ever a time for both of these offenses to get going, it would be here. To put this number into perspective, on Monday Night Football with a healthy Xavien Howard, a Steelers defense ranked 9th in efficiency and a Mason Rudolph’s check-down offense, the total closed 44. This number isn’t done moving yet, especially with Adam Gase wanting to run it up if he has the chance.
Indianapolis @ Pittsburgh First Half UNDER 21 (-105):
The Colts travel to Pittsburgh for an intriguing 1:00pm game, as Indianapolis continues to rack up close wins week-after-week with the genius Frank Reich. Looking at the total for the full game, it opened 43.5, and currently sits at 43/42.5, but the 1H has not moved off the (very) key number of 21. Similar to a few weeks ago with the Colts and Texans, we have a matchup featuring two offenses that have played extremely pedestrian defenses throughout the season, and now have a significant bump in competition. Indianapolis has faced the 4th easiest schedule of defenses, and now takes on a Steelers unit that’s 9th overall in defensive efficiency; anchored by their defensive line which is 3rd in adjusted sack rate. When Pittsburgh has the ball on offense, they may have some issues dealing with this healthy Colts defense, getting back stud safety Malik Hooker this week. Similar to Indy, Pittsburgh has faced the 5th easiest slate of opposing defenses. Both offenses rank in the bottom 7 in explosive pass offense, and when the game is in a “situation neutral state” (competitive), both teams are bottom 3rd in the league in offensive pace. The market has shown support for the under, and I would expect this 1H total to continue to reflect the full-game movement.
Tampa Bay +6 (-110) @ Seattle:
For the past two seasons, Seattle gets bet against frequently and consistently finds ways to squeak out wins, while Tampa, unfortunately, takes professional money, dominates the game, and can’t quite line the pockets of the pros. Fortunately for us, we have been blessed with the opportunity to employ this strategy and only lose money once this weekend (sarcasm!). Where to begin? Seattle has faced one of the easiest schedules this year (9th easiest opposing offense, 10th easiest opposing defense), yet are still a net -0.3 yards per play! On the other side, Tampa Bay has faced the TOUGHEST schedule of opposing defenses, yet still have amassed a +0.1 net yards per play. Unfortunate mishaps (refs last week/missed chip shot vs the Giants) has turned what could be a 4-3 record fighting for a playoff berth into a 2-5 team looking for answers. This matchup lends itself favorable to Tampa, as Seattle, despite their success throwing the ball, continues to be one of the most run-heavy teams in football, and yes, Tampa Bay is #1 stopping the run. Meanwhile, Seattle cannot stop the pass (27th in pass efficiency defense), and we know Bruce Arians loves getting the ball downfield. This number reached 6.5, and is now down to 6 at the sharper shops, and will continue to fall.
Vegas Look-Ahead Lines for NFL Week 10:
Oakland -1.5 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Tennessee vs. Kansas City (N/A – Patrick Mahomes)
Cleveland -3 (EVEN) vs. Buffalo
Tampa Bay -5.5 vs. Arizona
New York Jets -1.5 vs. New York Giants
New Orleans -13 vs. Atlanta
Baltimore -10 @ Cincinnati
Green Bay -6.5 (-120) vs. Carolina
Chicago -3.5 (EVEN) vs. Detroit
Indianapolis -15.5 Miami
Los Angeles Rams -3.5 @ Pittsburgh
Dallas -3 vs. Minnesota
San Francisco -6 vs. Seattle