Written By Billy Attridge
Stakes are raised with three weeks to play and we have intriguing races in both the AFC and NFC with playoff seeding. For NFL Week 15 we’ll take a peak at an inter-conference game between two contenders, head upstate to New York for the first time this season, and will the 49ers derail a Seattle team defying the odds? Before investing this weekend, see why these numbers have moved. Then we head west to the desert to reveal Vegas look ahead lines for Week 16!
Dallas @ Indianapolis -2.5 (-120):
Both Dallas and Indianapolis earned massive wins in their hunt for the postseason; with Dallas having a 2-game lead on their NFC East counterparts. There may not be a hotter team in the league right now than the Cowboys, with five straight wins including three versus Washington, New Orleans, and Philadelphia all at home. Despite this run, the market has moved 2.5-points from the look-ahead lines in favor of Indianapolis. While Dallas has been rolling, the Colts have been trending up on both sides of the ball, with the 5th most efficient rush defense and overall the 11th most efficient defense. This is an extremely difficult spot for the Cowboys, as it would take a miraculous melt-down to lose the division, and Indianapolis is fighting for their life. Frank Reich and this offensive line should be able to exploit the Cowboys pass defense, and they could surprise in their effort in the trenches stopping Ezekiel Elliot on defense. There is a reason we saw a massive move from the look-ahead.
Detroit @ Buffalo ML (-125):
The market opened PICK’em, but immediately moved to Buffalo -2.5 by late Sunday night. The Bills took very heavy money UNDER on their regular season win total, closing 5.5 at most shops, and have an opportunity to make those sweat a bit who arrived late to the Bills UNDER party. While the offense has struggled immensely throughout the season with Peterman, Anderson, and Barkley starting 7 of the 13 games, Buffalo is 3-3 with Allen starting. Allen’s accuracy issues have certainly held them back at times, but his ability to move the chains with his legs has been a pleasant surprise. The Bills defense currently ranks 3rd overall in defensive efficiency, 8th in overall adjusted line yards, and 13th in adjusted sack rate. Detroit, on the other hand, ranks 29th in offensive efficiency and 24th in defensive efficiency, and are only averaging 5.2 yards per play on the season. The task gets no easier this week with a dome team heading to Orchard Park in December. This line could tick to -3 before kickoff.
Seattle @ San Francisco +4.5 (-110):
Another week, another double-digit Seattle victory that doesn’t match the metrics or on-field performance. BetOnline.ag re-opened this game Seattle -6 after their Monday Night win, and we’ve seen significant movement similar to last weeks 49ers game against Denver, where professional bettors grabbed +6, +5.5, +5 and +4.5 on the home dog. These division foes met two weeks ago, where the final score of 43-16 was not nearly indicative of the performance by both teams. San Francisco turned the ball over twice inside the Seattle 10-yard line, and muffed a punt before half. Last week we saw what San Francisco can do when they protect the football, and that is stay competitive with most teams in the league. With Seattle on a short week and winning 4-straight games, they’re now a 99.3% favorite to make the playoffs; if there was ever a spot where we could see a let-down, it’s here.
NFL Week 16 Vegas Look-Ahead Lines:
Tennessee Titans -10.5 vs. Washington Redskins
Los Angeles -5 vs. Baltimore Ravens
Dallas Cowboys -7.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
New England Patriots -13 vs. Buffalo Bills
Carolina Panthers -6 vs. Atlanta Falcons
Miami Dolphins -4 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Indianapolis Colts -6 vs. New York Giants
Philadelphia Eagles PICK’em vs. Houston Texans
Minnesota Vikings -3 at Detroit Lions
Green Bay Packers -3.5 at New York Jets
Cleveland Browns -7 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Los Angeles Rams -11.5 at Arizona Cardinals
Chicago Bears -6 vs. San Francisco 49ers
New Orleans Saints -7 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Seattle Seahawks -1 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Denver Broncos -2.5 at Oakland Raiders