Written By Billy Attridge
Yuck! The NFL Week 10 slate leaves much to be desired, but that doesn’t mean we won’t touch on significant market moves — and where lines will ultimately close. Will the Washington Redskins offensive line injuries plague them against Tampa Bay? +3.5 disappeared quickly in Indianapolis, will Jacksonville eventually close below the key of 3? Is it possible there’s market inflation in the Lions versus Bears game? Before investing this weekend, read below to see why these numbers have moved! We also head to Vegas to check on the early look ahead lines for NFL Week 11.
Washington @ Tampa Bay -2.5 (-117):
Injury plays a major factor in line movement, and we saw Tampa Bay open 1.5-point underdogs before money came in and moved this line out to a juiced 2.5 or soft 3 at BetOnline.Ag. The Redskins lost both guards for the season on Sunday (Lauvao torn ACL and Scherff torn pec), and left tackle Trent Williams is out for an undetermined amount of time, while right tackle Morgan Moses hasn’t practiced yet this week with a knee injury. Washington signed 3 new offensive lineman to the active roster, all of whom could see time this Sunday. The Buccaneers have been gashed through the air, but they’ve also faced the third toughest slate of opposing offenses. 2 of their 3 wins have come at home against teams whose offense ranks in the bottom half of efficiency (Cleveland and Philadelphia), and the Redskins are 20th, and enter Sunday now with a patchwork offensive line. Tampa’s defensive line is 5th in adjusted line yards and 14th in adjusted sack rate, so they could create some havoc here. On the other side of the ball, Washington ranks 22nd in explosive pass defense, while the Buc’s have the 6th most explosive pass offense and it’s even better with Fitzmagic under center. The move is 100% real.
Jacksonville +3 (-110) @ Indianapolis:
This line opened all over the place; anywhere from Indianapolis -2.5 to -3 (-130) across the board before moving to 3.5. That’s when Jacksonville money entered the market at an optimal price despite lower early week limits. If you’ve done your reading, you’ve heard the Jaguars talk about this game as if it was the Super Bowl. The team looks to have Leonard Fournette back, a healthier offensive line (Wednesday’s injury report was the first time all year an offensive lineman wasn’t listed), and an attitude that this could be a season defining game. Their offense should get back on track, as they face a Colts defense that’s faced the easiest slate of opposing offenses to date, and yet they rank 22nd in overall defensive efficiency. Indianapolis has steadily improved throughout the year, especially the offensive line play, but they will be put up against it this week against the 6th most efficient defense in Jacksonville. On the look-ahead line, Indianapolis was installed 1.5-point favorite. This number should trend back that way before kickoff if Fournette is able to go.
Detroit +7 @ Chicago:
Detroit is off back-to-back losses against Seattle and Minnesota, and now they travel to the Windy City to face a Bears team whose perception is very high after beating the Jets at home (multiple injuries on the offensive front), and the Bills (no explanation needed). Now the line has moved 2.5-points in the favor of the Bears, out to the key number of 7, where we’ve started to see resistance. Chicago was a team that garnered lots of sharp money pre-season on their win total, and for good reason. However, this team has faced the worst offenses in the league; Cardinals (31st), Jets (30th), and the Bills (32nd) in 3 of their 8 games, which is inflating many of their defensive metrics. Similar to the Jacksonville storyline, this is going to be an all-in effort from Detroit. They signed nose tackle Damon “Snacks” Harrison for games like these, and as long as corner Darius Slay goes (DNP Wednesday), this game could be more competitive than the line Indicates. This number is inflated, and I would expect it to head south closer to game-time even with Khalil Mack back.
NFL Week 11 Vegas Look Ahead Lines:
Seattle -2 vs. Green Bay
Carolina -2.5 @ Detroit
Atlanta -4.5 vs. Dallas
Baltimore -4.5 @ Cincinnati
Chicago -2 vs. Minnesota
New Orleans -6.5 vs. Philadelphia
Indianapolis -3 vs. Tennessee
Washington PICK’em vs. Houston
Tampa Bay -1 @ New York Giants
LA Chargers -7 vs. Denver
Arizona -3 vs. Oakland
Pittsburgh -3.5 @ Jacksonville
LA Rams -1.5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
BYE: Buffalo, Cleveland, Miami, New England, New York Jets, San Francisco