Written By Billy Attridge
Looking at NFL Week 11 there are some crazy betting splits unfolding, two of which we’ll touch on. Sportsbooks could use a profitable week, as the public has had their number the past few Sundays. Does Chicago’s running game lend itself to a look at their total this week? Can the Saints continue their point spread domination and make it an 8th straight cover? Will the Patriots support push this number through the key to 7.5? Let’s find out…
Detroit @ Chicago Under 40.5 (-105):
This total opened 44 Sunday night at BetOnline.AG, and was immediately bet down to 42.5. It’s steadily dropped to the current price just under 41 (there are still 41s out there). When we dive into the match-up, this very real move makes sense. The Lions and the Bears have both played difficult offenses (Chicago has faced an average offensive efficiency of 12.11, and Detroit 14.11), and yet both defenses still rank Top 11 in overall efficiency. Detroit has struggled mightily trying to establish a run game (30th in Run Success Rate), and Chicago’s run defense (13th in efficiency) is not the defense where I can see Detroit getting that going. On the other side of the ball, Chicago will want to pound the rock against a Lions defense ranking 24th in Run Success Rate. Barring a defensive or special team score, I can see the winner of this game getting to 20. The under is extremely real, but every point from 44 through 41 is so valuable, so I don’t see much at the current price even with a dome team playing outside in chilly weather.
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Washington @ New Orleans -7.5 (-115):
The Saints opened 8-point favorites, climbed to -9, and since we’ve seen a small move on the dog. Is there a team hotter or more impressive than New Orleans right now? Not only have they won 7 straight games, but they’ve COVERED every one during this run. Their defense has steadily improved (5th in defense efficiency), they’ve become the most efficient run offense in the NFL, and they have an experienced, Hall of Fame quarterback in Drew Brees. In come the Redskins, a 4-5 team whose record does not properly represent how good they are. Washington ranks Top 13 in both offensive and defensive efficiency — and have proven they can put up points against some of the best defenses in the league. The look-ahead line on this game was Saints -7, so we have seen a small adjustment based on last week’s results. Will the market catch up to New Orleans this week? Outside of the Eagles, is there an NFL stock higher than the Saints? I don’t believe so, and I think we’ll see a “Sell” from professional bettors on the Saints this week.
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New England @ Oakland +6.5 (-104):
BetOnline.Ag opened the Patriots 5-point favorites and the market has responded with a plethora of New England money; moving them to a juiced -6.5 or -7 in the market. With 85% of the tickets on New England it’s easy to think books should move right to -7, but once bettors laid the early number there’s hesitation with opportunity for middles presenting themselves to professional bettors around a key number (Laying -5 with New England and potentially taking back +7.5 on Oakland). That’s a discussion for a different day, though. When we peak into this game, it’s not shocking to see Oakland will have an advantage with their pass offense, and the move on the total from 50 to 55 supports that (Also extremely real). New England still ranks dead last in Passing Defense Success Rate, and isn’t much better defending the run (29th in Run Defense Success Rate). Oakland has the quarterback and the weapons to exploit this, and as long as their special teams doesn’t fumble this game away like their division foe Denver last week, Oakland has the offense to keep this game close. With their season on the line, if this number climbs to 7.5, I expect there to be resistance from professional bettors.
Week 12 Vegas Look Ahead Lines courtesy of the Westgate Superbook:
Home Spread Away
Detroit -1.5 Vikings
Cowboys -4 Chargers
Redskins -8.5 Giants
Bengals -8 Browns
Eagles -11.5 Bears
Patriots -14.5 Dolphins
Chiefs -7.5 Bills
Falcons -9 Buccaneers
Jets +4 Panthers
Colts +6.5 Titans
49ers +8.5 Seahawks
Rams -1.5 Saints
Cardinals +3.5 Jaguars
Raiders -6.5 Broncos
Steelers -12.5 Packers
Ravens -7.5 Texans
