Glen Oaks Club was designed with 27 holes all tree-lined and quite similar from tee-to-green in shape and distance. It’s perfectly manicured and with the help of two hurricanes removing many trees, it really opened the sight lines. Glen Oaks is a hybrid course featuring nine holes from their Blue course and holes from the Red and the White nines. It features crisp, deep white bunkers and perfectly manicured fairways, greens and rough. The Poa greens and rough are the perfect grass for potentially harsh winters. They are also the major defense of the course after the tree removal from the aforementioned hurricanes. There are no blind shots and the place is wide open; there won’t be any lost balls this week, I can tell you that.
If greens are going to be the defense, I better find guys for my DFS lineup that are going to hit them. With complexes that are going to be brand new to almost everyone, the expert putters won’t have an advantage and the field should catch up. I will also point out that “wide open” means swing it off the tee so guys who were put off by the difficult fairways at Firestone and Quail Hollow will breathe a sigh of relief.
The course chosen for this years Northern Trust will play toughest if firm and fast. The forecast might just help make that a reality because it’s absolutely perfect out. Sunshine most of the four days of tournament play with temperatures in the mid-70’s, and nothing more than 10% chance of rain.
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Favorites
(In order of preference for this week and tournament only. Rankings vary week-to-week based on event, course, form, life, weather, price etc.).
Hideki Matsuyama (10/1) – He enters the FEC Playoffs at No. 1 and that’s right where he checks in on my golf picks list this week. He turned on the class starting at Erin Hills (T-2) and has been white-hot since with T-14, WIN, and T-5 in his last three starts. All four of those results are majors and one WGC so he’s performing on big tracks, against the big boys, in the biggest fields. The “weakest” part of his game is accuracy off the tee and this place is wide open.
Jordan Spieth (11/1) – Golden Child is automatic every week he’s not playing TPC Four Seasons in our world. After back-to-back wins he limped in T-13 at Firestone and T-28 at the PGA Championship. He’s 2nd in scoring, 3rd in birdies, 12th in GIR, and that has resulted in three wins and three additional podiums this season. Remember when he was having a bad year?
Rickie Fowler (12/1) – After 17 regular season events he’s cashed thirteen top 25’s and nine top 10’s. His only result outside the top 10 in his last five on Tour was T-22 at Royal Birkdale. He leads the Tour in scoring, SG: Total, SG: Putting and Sand Saves.
Dustin Johnson (12/1) – Somebodies getting closer. The last three times out he’s closed 67-66-67 but he’s had one throwaway round in each of those events. He’s mopped up on easy courses, hard courses, new courses and old courses this season. He has no problem going low (-17 at Riviera, -23 last year BMW at Crooked Stick), or chewing up par 70’s regardless of length.
Supporting Cast
(Just missed and should make excellent support staff for deeper games/tickets).
Matt Kuchar (33/1) – Remember that disappointing 81 at THE PLAYERS that saw him MDF (made cut/did not finish)? Yeah, me neither. Since that aberration Kuchar only finished outside T-17 once, RBC Canadian Open (T-32), after Spieth donkey-punched him at Royal Birkdale. His superb 70-68 to close at Quail Hollow doesn’t hurt and neither does his record in this area. He won his first event at Turning Stone in 2009 and won the 2010 Barclays at Plainfield. He’s also had fantastic results at both Firestone and Muirfield Village very close comparisons to Glen Oaks.
Paul Casey (33/1) – This is recording :::Ctrl-C, Ctrl-V::: Jokes aside, Casey hasn’t MC since the 2017 opener at Sony. His last finish outside T-26 was in March at Bay Hill. His worst finish in his last four on Tour is T-13 at Quail Hollow. This is a recording. He’s currently No. 1 in the Golfweek/Sagarin ratings.
Marc Leishman (50/1) – Looking for his 10th weekend in his last 10 starts, the Aussie’s career-best season doesn’t look like it should slow down now. He’s 5th in scoring on Tour and 11th in SG: Total so it’s hardly a surprise that he’s finished outside the top 30 just twice during this stretch.
Patrick Reed (33/1) – The event defending champion picked up his only win of last season down the road at Bethpage Black. His best result of the season was last time out at Quail Hollow and that will look very similar to this week’s track. You don’t think the New York crowd will embrace the Captain America angle much? He closed 68-68 at Firestone the week before the PGA so I’m riding the wave.
Longshots
(Long shots, no-names with names, trending, and everyone else with a few warts that could win).
Robert Garrigus (125/1) – With three top 10’s in his last three Tour events, albeit it none of those were majors or WGCs, I did notice they were all low totals. The last two were also on Poa/Bent courses where you could spray it off the tee.
Bubba Watson (100/1) – Wide open off the tee (I don’t believe I have alzheimer’s yet). Similar in look to Augusta. Perfect weather. I’m not over-thinking this especially after T-17 at Firestone. Grip it and rip it, Bubba!
Ollie Schniederjans (80/1) – The Man Without Hat can dance if he wants to, or he can leave his friends behind. Because if his friends don’t dance, and if they don’t dance, then they’re no friends of mine. Of his last 12 rounds, seven have been 66 or lower. He posted 21-under and DIDN’T WIN last week but he should be full of confidence and overlooked in a field this week with the big dogs.
Harold Varner, lll (200/1) – It wouldn’t surprise me one bit if he won this week as he’s been rounding into form his last three events. His power should help him find plenty of greens, and it should help that putting won’t be the deciding factor.
Jason Kokrak (150/1) – T-33 as one of my long-shot selections at Quail Hollow and backed that up with a T-16 last week. Absolutely nothing points to abandoning ship this week!
Fades
(Not this week, fella).
Si Woo Kim (250/1) – He couldn’t defend his only Tour title last week but is suddenly going to show up THIS week? No way, Si Woo.
Justin Rose (50/1) – Nothing he’s done since a solo second at Augusta is worth mentioning.
Phil Mickelson (80/1) – If he didn’t fire at Quail Hollow I would believe his game isn’t in a place where he’s comfortable. He hasn’t been the same since off-the-course legal troubles, either. Some will argue he can spray it this week and be fine, but it’s hardly a major or an attention grabber.
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Mike Glasscott is a renowned golf expert making contributions to Rotoworld.com and Golfweek Magazine. You can hear ‘Glass’ frequently on WGCL Radio and interact with him on Twitter @MikeGlasscott.
