By Neil Rodgers
In-play betting is the future of sports gambling in this country. Unfortunately, for most Stateside bettors this option has been slow to make its way across the pond and gain mainstream acceptance whereas it currently represents the majority of all soccer action seen in European sports books. Neil Rodgers works as a basketball manager at UK-based Sports Solutions and offered his in-play betting tips for those looking to attack the live betting markets.
In-Play Betting
Oh the joys of In-Play betting. Plentiful they seem on the outset and indeed there’s a good deal of truth to this, however there are pitfalls even the most established and experienced bettors find themselves falling into from time to time.
In-Play wagering offers bettors the chance to place a bet at almost any time during a sporting event. With this comes obvious advantages that aren’t always available in pre-match pricing. If you come from a knowledgeable sport focused background and attack sports betting this way, then In-Play betting will more than likely appeal to you. The mathematicians and statisticians also see advantages, but I feel the more sport orientated bettors see the greatest potential in being able to place a wager at any time.
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Why Bet In-Play?
So why wait until the action begins to place your bet? One simple answer to this is because In-Play often gives you the chance to wait for a price you actually wanted rather than having to take whatever number BetOnline.AG has hung. Using the sport I’m most familiar with as my first example: Say next year’s NBA final is once again Golden State versus Cleveland and the Warriors are a hypothetical -7.5 favorite for Game 1. You look at this pre-match line and want to back Golden State on the handicap but feel -7.5 is just too rich. Here’s where In-Play betting could be for you; once the game begins LeBron goes down court and nails a 3 followed by a Warriors Turnover and another quick Cleveland bucket. With 11:20 still to play in the 1st Quarter and the Cavaliers up 5-0 you would have the chance to back Golden State -3.5/-4.5. Clearly the chance of Golden State winning has reduced slightly being down 5 and the odds changed reflect this but if you felt Golden State were the bet pre-match I wouldn’t suspect Cleveland scoring the first two baskets dramatically changes your mind. This is an ideal situation and many times optimizing the in-play market requires patience but this strategy can be implemented in different circumstances if you have a comprehensive understanding of your specific sport.
A second example is from the sport that dominates my country (Soccer). Think of a Premier League Soccer game between Manchester United and Chelsea; pre-match prices are Manchester +163; Draw +200; Chelsea +188. Going into this match you fancy Manchester United and the game goes to halftime 0-0; you would now find prices like Manchester +220; Draw; +125; Chelsea +225. If nothing transpired in the first half to sway you from backing Manchester then taking the +220 yields a 6.8% edge over the pre-match price.
Overreaction
A second feature presents itself with In-Play betting is a market overreaction. One common downfall for the average bettor is wagering on what has happened or is currently happening, rather than projecting what WILL happen. Due to this very human action sports books like to overreact to things during a game. A common theme you hear from Bet the Board is buy something at its lowest value; this is the same principle with in-play, just more pronounced.
If a Basketball team goes on a 10-0 run, ultimately the In-Play price will change to a degree as if there’s been a 14-0 run. The average bettor who sees this will only bet Team A, looking at what’s happening and assuming it must continue. The savvier punter who has the ability to foresee what’s going to happen may envisage an imminent Team B timeout where the Coach changes defenses, inserts a player off the bench for a better on-court matchup, and not only stops the run, but generates one of their own. This is the point where you can capitalize and take advantage of the inflated Team B price.
By no means is this easy, but having an understanding of how prices fluctuate In-Play for each sport and how overreactions take place allow you to find greater value.
Decisions, Decisions
Believe it or not, Traders don’t have to make many decisions when trading games. Sophisticated Models do the heavy lifting and a Traders job is usually to manage and control prices rather than carefully considering them. This works for sports books as they don’t have to pay for expert knowledge and the industry emphasis is on quantity more than quality when In-Play Traders deal multiple games at once.
As stated, sophisticated Models do the vast majority of work, however what these Models don’t have is a button or command for exceptional circumstances. I’m yet to encounter a Football Model that has a ‘Tom Brady is hurt’ button. When outliers like significant injuries transpire Traders are found in a bit of peril. Every company has an emphasis on being suspended (no action) for as little time as possible during events, so the pressure is on Traders to re-release prices immediately after any extreme circumstance. If the Patriots lead Miami 7-0 but Handsome Tom goes down with a game-ending injury early in the 2nd Quarter, Traders ultimately have a decision to make and a price to re-release. At moments like this an informed sports bettor can have a significant edge over a Trader who isn’t specialized in a specific sport, and will be reliant on betting patterns and other industry prices to determine where their price needs to be.
These occasions are rare, hence sports book don’t feel the need to employ individuals with specialist knowledge but on the occasion they do, In-Play markets present exceptional value.
It’s Not That Easy
Reading the above makes it sound easy. Wait until half time, back the team on the wrong side of a run, or wait for the star player to get injured. Simple! Unfortunately, it’s not, and the examples were simplified for clearer understanding. As I am sure you’re aware, sports betting isn’t like that and there are many dangers to In-Play betting that must be carefully considered before diving in.
A big problem with In-Play wagering is how quickly everything changes. You have limited time to place your wager so there’s not much thinking time. Snap decisions can often be unwise and even reckless. These aren’t the sort of words you want associated with your betting pattern if your aim is to be a profitable. I’m a huge advocate of logging every bet made. It can be tough when you’re in the eye of the action tornado, but logging your bets is invaluable and a great tool for assessing progress as a bettor.
Remember the price for the Warriors/Cavs game mentioned earlier? Both selections were available at -110 pre-match. Once the game goes In-Play you still get the -7.5 line, but wave goodbye to -110; now you’re looking at -120 both ways. Understand you are paying a price to have a look at what’s happening, and if you’re happy with the value of a pre-match price, then it’s be worth taking it rather than waiting.
Go Time
There you have it, a few reasons why In-Play betting is certainly worth a look, but make sure you remain patient. Quick, snap decisions can be a costly and something that can damage your bankroll fast. Whatever sport you fancy, monitor how odds fluctuate In-Play and how games are traded; as you build up that knowledge you will open yourself up to new opportunities in the market.
