Keys for the winner at Royal Birkdale are simple: Drive for dough! With doglegs aplenty, the 146th British Open venue won’t have wide fairways that we’ve seen at Troon or St. Andrews. With numerous bunkers strategically placed and grass-covered sea dunes lining the fairways, golfers that control trajectory will have chances to find more GIR (greens in regulation). Putting is rarely an issue in these events, evidence by the list of previous winners because greens are kept at a level that won’t allow balls to roll off if Mother Nature rears its head.
Mental toughness comes into play frequently at The Open. I hate to break out the immeasurable trait, but the list of players to win gives us clues. Players that have usually been around the block have had the most success. I’m going to lean on guys that have played this event well and thrive tee-to-green. Knowing how to get around in less than optimal conditions is worth more this week than recent form; golfers that suffered the most should have points of reference we like to call ‘experience’.
14-holes are played before approaching the first par five. By then, golfers have encountered 11 par fours and 3 par threes so those that exercise patience on the inward could prosper. Those who don’t have patience to navigate and prefer the bomb-and-gouge method to make it all back in two holes will be the first ones on a plane home. Johnny Miller used 1-iron all week en route to victory in 1976. The last time Royal Birkdale hosted 10-OVER par was T-5, so taking bogeys won’t be the end of the world this week. Find somebody who can properly flight the golf ball and grind out pars, because risky behavior this week won’t be rewarded unless the wind fails to show.
The weather forces me to circle back to mental toughness and experience as I put together my golf betting portfolio at BetOnline.AG. The good news, as of Tuesday evening the wind looks to be prevailing so the course will play as designed. Better news, conditions appear that way all tournament so golfers won’t play the course differently each day. That’s helpful when putting together my fantasy golf lineups if a players mindset is roughly the same all tournament. Additionally, the routing of the course caught my attention – there aren’t many consecutive holes playing in the same direction. I’ll lean on the experienced golfers who know how to change ball trajectory best to navigate wind and big gusts.
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Favorites
(In order of preference for this week and tournament only. Rankings vary week-to-week based on event, course, form, life, weather, price).
Sergio Garcia (16/1) – The Masters champion hasn’t rested on his laurels or decided that winning a major was the final chapter of his career. Of his 16 weekends, 10 have gone for top 10’s including the last three years. In five events since winning at Augusta National he hasn’t MC (missed the cut) and all five results are T-30 or better, including T-2 in Munich his last time out. We know the Spaniard is dominant tee-to-green, and that matters most this week.
Jordan Spieth (14/1) – It’s no secret he prefers the challenges of working the golf ball both directions (see: Colonial) and doesn’t mind wind. Both of these factors keep him locked in and focused. Last time we saw ‘Golden Child’ he was holing a bunker shot to win the Travelers; when par is an excellent score the short game comes in handy.
Rickie Fowler (12/1) – The hardest thing to do in golf is win your first major, but creating history lends itself here. The last seven winners of major championships have been first-timers, including Stenson last year. Rickie’s made six cuts in seven tries across the pond including a T-5 in 2011 and T-2 in 2014. He had a taste at Augusta and Erin Hills and was T-3 at QLN his last time, which suggests all cylinders are firing.
Adam Scott (28/1) – Anytime pounding fairways and greens is required he usually falls right about here and this week isn’t any different. He prepped last week at Dundonald links and got a feel of the coastal winds he and the field will face again this week. With par being an excellent score I won’t have to worry about his putter being on fire. His run of four consecutive top 10’s was squashed last year when 20-under was the winning score.
Dustin Johnson (12/1) – He’s first in SG: Off the Tee, Tee to Green, Total AND leads the Tour in GIR. His record in weather and wind is stout and his ball flight doesn’t seem bothered by the elements. His last seven Opens have included five top 15 finishes so the experience is plentiful. He should perk up with how difficult this place will play and I’d expect him to be firmly in the mix regardless of draw or conditions.
Matt Kuchar (50/1) – I’m loading up across the board as his game is perfect for Royal Birkdale. He’s one of the few that regularly hits it low so no fiddling with trajectory needed. If this is the hardest of the tracks, Kuchar will be in the mix because he’s not required to bomb it, and is fairly accurate as he can work it off the tee and has a mint short game. It’s not hard to see why he’s on my radar.
Supporting Cast
(Just missed and should make excellent support staff for deeper games/tickets).
Zach Johnson (80/1) – The 2015 Champion has rattled off ten in a row in the U.K. and enters the week off of his best finish of the year, a T-5 at the John Deere Classic. Five of his last six finishes are T-16 or better and he knows it’s “go time” if he wants to be a factor in the FEC Playoffs. #Momentum
Mark Leishman (50/1) – Noted wind player and grinder, the Aussie has rattled off six finishes of T-34 or better in his last six weekends. The highlight was T-5 in his last event at TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm.
Daniel Berger (66/1) – There’s always exceptions to rules and Berger is this week’s contributor. He’s hit the T-5 in three of his last four and four of eight. His lack of experience on the links is the factor that holds him back this week, but he’s playing out of his mind right now.
Range Jockeys
(Long shots, no-names with names, trending, event jockeys, and everyone else with a few warts).
Brendan Steele (125/1) – He’s in the midst of a career season on Tour. This will be his third Open Championship, and hopefully he learned from his MC’s. He’s in the best shape of his life and his entire bag has been solid all year.
Webb Simpson (200/1) – I want to put him in a higher tier because his putting won’t be as much of a factor this week. His short game has been excellent and he’s had enough experience across the pond to handle some breeze. His nice run of form in the States suggests something is brewing here.
Byeong-hun An (125/1) – Formidable ball-striker that ranks Top 30 in the major strokes gained categories (Off the Tee, Approach and Tee to Green) and has won at Wentworth.
Ryan Fox (250/1) – What does the Fox say? I’m on fire, people! Check his last six finishes and get back to me, including his back-to-back T-4’s at Portstewart and Dundonald. I’m trying to hide him down here, if I’m being honest. #AllinInAllFormats
The Skinny
Royal Birkdale – Southport, Merseyside, United Kingdom.
Yards – 7,156 per the official scorecard.
Par – 70 (34-36).
Course Architect(s) – Fredrick G. Hawtree and J.H. Taylor (1894); martin Hawtree (1993).
Purse – $10.25 million; over $1.6 million (winner) plus 600 FEC points.
Defending Champion – Sweden’s Henrik Stenson out-dueled Phil Mickelson at Royal Troon to win his and the country’s first major championship.
Defending Champion (course) – Padraig Harrington defended his title in 2008 by defeating Ian Poulter by four shots.
Notes – 156 players; Top 70 and ties play the weekend.
Notes ll – This will be Royal Birkdale’s 10th time as host.
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Mike Glasscott is a renowned golf expert making contributions to Rotoworld.com and Golfweek Magazine. You can hear ‘Glass’ frequently on WGCL Radio and interact with him on Twitter @MikeGlasscott.
