TPC Boston, originally an Arnold Palmer design, opened for play on Tour for the 2003 season. After a Gil Hanse redesign which began in 2006 and is ongoing to this day, the former Deutsche Bank Championship found a permanent home in the FedEx Cup Playoffs rotation as the second event. Hanse has been evolving this course from a Florida-style layout to a rustic New England track. His signature boulders and chocolate drop mounds lining fairways, wispy fescue grasses, and rugged bunkers surrounding greens have turned this former shootout into a demanding course. After back-to-back 20-under or lower posted winners, the last three seasons have seen 15-under as the winning score as Hanse continues to nip and tuck this place into order. Evidence of this course getting tougher is quite obvious.
Double-Digit Rounds Under Par:
2013: 34
2014: 8
2015: 3
2016: 7
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Hanse initially shortened the course but that trend ended quickly as scores continued to plummet. He stretched it out to 7,242 in 2015 and added a new tee box at No. 4 in 2016 that saw tips play 7,297. This year holes 12 and 13 have gotten a facelift to complete the total transformation from Palmer to Hanse.
The trees between the fairways that separated the holes are now gone and 12 no longer has wetlands guarding the front or the massive fairway runoff to the right. A new tee box takes the runoff out of play to the right and a new green has been built where the wetlands once sat. The hole now plays 515 yards according to the official scorecard.
On 13 there won’t be any trees left to worry about off the tee. Also, the green that was once wide and skinny is now long and skinny. Comparing last year’s scorecard shows the hole lost only four yards with its new sunken tee box. All of the other holes measure the same as 2016. Adding an extra par five this week won’t hurt scoring but TPC Boston boasts a pair of par fours on the back that play 495 (No. 14) and 510 (No. 12), so the best will be tested.
The Hanse years are where I’m interested in course history, so that’s a decade of numbers to crunch. Dell Technologies Championship has played every tournament on this course each year of the FEC Playoffs. This list of winners here suggests ball-striking will again be the order of the day. When played firm and fast, this track can present problems as more balls will find the rough. Last year McIlroy registered T-18 in GIR and T-41 in fairways but for once he made everything on the greens. He also made a triple and a double on the week but played his last 54 holes 19-under-par including that double.
Favorites
(In order of preference for this week and tournament only. Rankings vary week-to-week based on event, course, form, life, weather, price etc.).
Jordan Spieth (8/1) – This isn’t his favorite track but the burn from last week should have him dialed in to right the ship. With his second place finish he’ll have a chance to win the Playoff again so he can let it loose this week. He’s eighth in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and first in scoring average.
Jason Day (16/1) – I’ve used this analogy before and it fits again this week. The engine is cranking, trying to turn over, let’s give it one more shot. Oooooooooooh! Almost! With Dustin Johnson “back” nobody remembers consecutive top 10’s, plus Day absolutely rakes on this track (minus winning). He’s never missed in NOYNE tries and has 31 of 36 rounds at par or better. He hasn’t finished outside T-15 in the last four years. You smell what I’m cookin’.
Paul Casey (22/1) – Baby due the week of The Tour Championship, so be aware of that. We all know that “Nappy Factor” moves in mysterious ways, but Casey’s last six months reaffirm this phenomenon. He MC at Sony in the first event of 2017 but has only one finish outside solo 26th since March. The Englishman led by two after 54 holes last year thanks to a troika of 66’s, but fell to second after closing with 73.
Supporting Cast
(Just missed and should make excellent support staff for deeper games/tickets).
Patrick Reed (28/1) – Backed up his T-2 at the PGA with T-20 last week at Glen Oaks. Those glancing at the final leaderboard will forget he was five back and T-4 when Sunday’s round began. His 75 surely didn’t help matters, but he was T-4 here in 2015 and T-5 last season.
Kevin Chappell (40/1) – The 54-hole leader here last year after 67-64 went on to finish T-8 after T-12 in 2015. Chappell drives the stat jockeys crazy because his metrics frankly stink. The metrics that don’t stink are that he sits No. 17th in the FEC points and 26th in the OWGR so he must be doing something right! His current run of T-8, T-13, T-33 and T-6 last week backs up that statement.
Charley Hoffman (50/1) – Nearly $4 million in earnings without a win paints the perfect picture. It’s now 14 paychecks in a row with four top 20’s (two top 10’s) in the last five starts. He won here in 2010 when he closed with 62. He was the 36-hole leader in 2015 before 76 in the third round set him back. He finished 3rd after closing with 67. One of my favorite quotes of the year was at WGC-BI when he told his caddy; “I’m sick of coming in second.”
Patrick Cantlay (50/1) – He rarely plays but made the FEC Playoffs anyways and hasn’t MC in 10 tries this season. 10! I remember when he set the course record of 60 at TPC River Highlands as an amateur, and I do believe he led the field in GIR last week on his way to another T-10. That was his third Top 10 of the season and it pushed him to No. 50 in FedEx Cup points. Imagine when he decides to play full-time!
Longshots
(Long shots, no-names with names, trending, and everyone else with a few warts that could win).
Ian Poulter (125/1) – He’s not going to 3-putt 100 times like he did last week, and we can say the flat stick is the reason he finished outside the T-35 for the first time in eight starts.
Xander Schauffele (80/1) – Since his win at Greenbrier he’s posted T-20 at The Open, T-13 at WGG-BI, MC at PGA Championship and T-17 at The Northern Trust. Those are four big boy events and three big boy paychecks for the rookie.
Jason Kokrak (125/1) – I brought him into the fold at the PGA Championship and he finished T-33. He followed with T-16 at Sedgefield and T-25 last week at Glen Oaks. He closed with 66 here last year and in 2014. I’m not ejecting just yet, especially when he sits 79th and will need another solid result.
Chez Reavie (100/1) – It’s nine in a row for the 2011 runner-up to Webb Simpson. He gave it a run at the PGA before fading on Sunday. He gave it a run last week before even par 70 saw him drop to T-10. He’s top 30 in scoring, 31st in GIR and 5th in fairways.
Fades
(Not this week, boys).
Sergio Garcia (40/1) – Won his first major. Got married. Skipped this event in both 2014 and 2015. Skipped the NTO the this year and last. His GAF meter is off and there’s no Ryder Cup to prepare for so I’m done too.
Bubba Watson (66/1) – See Above ?
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Mike Glasscott is a renowned golf expert making contributions to Rotoworld.com and Golfweek Magazine. You can hear ‘Glass’ frequently on WGCL Radio and interact with him on Twitter @MikeGlasscott.
