Mother Nature has spoiled quite a few parties in her day. The Week 5 edition of Bet the Board became a casualty this week when Hurricane Matthew forced the guys to postpone the Thursday installment.
However, loyal listeners can exhale a bit because in lieu of the podcast is a blog packed with information you can use to have a profitable weekend. Sorry for the mild inconvenience since we know football bettors are creatures of habit, but be sure to check the @BetTheBoardPod Twitter feed on Sunday for this weekend’s best bet.
Here’s a transcript of this week’s interview with Dave Mason of Betonline:
How did last weekend go for the house? What were some of the biggest and winners losers between pros and college?
We couldn’t have been happier with how last weekend went on the college side. Washington, Wisconsin, UNC, and Indiana were all big winners for BOL. The public did land a shot with Oklahoma’s cover over TCU. Although we were rooting for a Clemson cover, the outright win combined with the game going over the total were huge public sides making that game the public’s second biggest winner of the weekend behind only Oklahoma.
As for the NFL, score one for the betting public. The weekend started out profitable for the players when Cincinnati coasted to victory against Miami on Thursday. We got back in the black during early Sunday kickoffs with the Bills, Panthers, and Bears all outstanding results for the house. However, the late games with Dallas and Denver put is in a bad spot even before the Steelers cashed the biggest public decision of the entire weekend. Public bettors landed one more shot on Monday night football cashing comfortably with the Minnesota Vikings.
Have you seen any sharp action early (as of Friday)?
So far the only sharp side we’ve seen are the Buffalo Bills +3 and +2.5, but we’ve taken some sharp totals action from highly respected money on both the Steelers OVER 47 and the Raiders OVER 49.
The public always comes out firing after a good week, where do you see potential liability on Sunday?
No surprise here that the public can’t get enough of three road favorites; Patriots, Eagles, Bengals.
The NFL Week 5 podcast-blog wouldn’t be complete without some thoughts from the guys, so here goes…
Texans @ Vikings
Despite being -0.1 net yards per play, the Minnesota Vikings are coached to perfection and do all the small things well. Mike Zimmer has been a master at halftime adjustments and the intangibles simply can not be quantified by the numbers. Houston invested big on offense in the off-season with Osweiler, Lamar Miller, and their first four draft picks all on that side of the ball. Unfortunately, Bill O’Brien’s offense is dead last in the NFL in efficiency through 4 weeks. That said we’ve seen pro bettors at the biggest shops pick off and value bet +7 on Houston when it popped.
Titans @ Dolphins
Sharp bettors talked up the Dolphins at the beginning of the week with Miami labeling this game “the start of our season”, but with practice being shut down and the facility closed for nearly 48-hours is that still the case? Players and coaches minds were on their family and friends as they prepared for Hurricane Matthew; scrambling for food and water while waiting in gas lines at 4:00am — their minds couldn’t have been on Tennessee or football. We saw some early money come in UNDER 44 grabbing that key number in what could be a game impacted by weather, but skies appear clear for Sunday’s 1:00pm kick. Tennessee wants to run it, 4th in the NFL in rushing. Miami’s 29th in the NFL allowing nearly 130 yards per game on the ground. The Dolphins have passed on 67% of offensive snaps, highest percentage in the NFL. Only ONE member of the Titans secondary grades out average or better at the quarter-poll of the season, I would be leery tailing that early week UNDER steam.
UPDATE: Starting cornerback, Xavien Howard is out with an MCL injury suffered in practice going 1-on-1 with Kenny Stills. Starting LB, Koa Misi is also out.
Redskins @ Ravens
Another total being bet down due to weather questions from Hurricane Matthew off that key of 47 down to 45. I would think we see at least a tick back up as the forecast looks better than it initially did. Washington passes the ball on 65% of offensive snaps and on the flip side their defense is 24th in efficiency. Baltimore has started hot, but much of that can be attributed to playing Cleveland, Jacksonville, and Buffalo, so I would take the Ravens defense being 4th in efficiency with a grain of salt. Ray Lewis isn’t walking through that door any time soon. Despite Joe Flacco not being completely recovered from ACL surgery he’s graded as the 16th best QB out of 35 qualifiers, I think we give this Raven’s offense a slight tick up in ratings moving forward + Kenneth Dixon makes his NFL debut after getting most of the first-team reps in camp and preseason before going down with a knee injury.
UPDATE: Starting left tackle, Ronnie Stanley will be out today.
Eagles @ Lions
Jim Schwartz makes his second trip back to Detroit after being fired by the Lions in 2013; he got revenge in 2014 as the Bills defensive coordinator holding Detroit to 14 points. We have seen sharp money move this game from 2.5 to the key of 3 and even through the 3 to 3.5 at some shops. As Dave Mason said the public is buying #Wentzylvainia and the Eagles stock in a big way this week, but I would expect some buy back from middlers and maybe even a real position on Detroit from other groups if this gets to a natural 3.5.
Falcons @ Broncos
Both Trevor Siemian and Paxton Lynch took snaps at practice this week, but if Gary Kubiak is smart he test drives the Paxton-train free of charge. At 4-0 and Siemian banged up there won’t be any quarterback controversy talk after taking a look at the new merchandise to see what the future could hold. Two groups are battling this one out in a major way, some took Atlanta +6 and the other laid -4 with Denver. Lots of split opinion on the total from groups, as well. I would expect both to crash once Paxton gets announced in. I would expect some over money to enter the market if it hits the key of 44, too.
Chargers @ Raiders
On the Monday podcast Payne alluded to the San Diego Chargers +4.5 not being a number that would last long in the marketplace, 4 days later we’re staring at Oakland -3.5 across the board. The Raiders are fat and happy off back-to-back east coast wins in as many weeks + the 3-1 start is Oakland’s best since 2002! Bet The Board fans will love this common saying; “The Chargers need this game like blood” and at 1-3 instead of 4-0 like they should be this is “must win” territory. Unfortunately, the injury bug is still running rampant in San Diego with their best defensive player in Jason Verrett going down with a torn ACL this week. There is some good news, though, Joey “The Diva” Bosa is set to make his NFL debut.
Giants @ Packers
From a market perspective this game is very easy to uncover: sports books are going to need the New York Giants come Sunday night in a major way. Even with a Giants cover it won’t be all champagne wishes and caviar dreams; Green Bay is going to be one of the largest teaser legs in NFL Week 5. If the Giants win this game outright books will be yelling; “Yahtezee!” We have seen the books get some help from the professionals grabbing all the hooks in the marketplace on New York, but that won’t be near enough to balance action as the NFL remains the one sport where the public has a major say.
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We will be back on the airwaves Monday, October 10th to breakdown Monday Night Football and the NFC South battle between Tampa Bay and Carolina.
