NFL Week 13 Total On The Move
We have taken a snipers approach this NFL season and it has paid dividends. After a few weeks off, we return with two investments that will move in our favor and enhance our 8-1 season to date record. Our focus will be the Pittsburgh Steelers and their surging offense against a bottom tier defense in the comfy confines of a dome.
#455 Steelers-Falcons OVER 42 (-108) AND Steelers TEAM TOTAL OVER 20.5 (-116)
The total opened 42 following Pittsburgh’s convincing win Monday Night at Indianapolis. It was quickly pushed to a consensus 44 and even blew through the key to 44.5. Wednesday morning a respected difference of opinion entered the market driving the total down to 41.5 before settling at 42 again.
Has The Steelers Offense Improved?
Coming off their bye Pittsburgh has played against three defenses ranked Top 15 in efficiency in the Saints, Bengals, and Colts. Over this three game stretch the Steelers are 11th in EPA per play and the ground game has been potent; 2nd in EPA per rush. Najee Harris is banged up but Jaylen Warren is likely to return. That is a good thing since Warren has been far more efficient than Harris. Kenny Pickett continues to progress cutting back turnovers and building a report with George Pickens, Diontae Johnson, and Pat Freiermuth. Pickett should be comfortable in the pocket with the Falcons dead last and pressure rate. The Steelers offensive line has quietly improved to 8th in Pass Block Win Rate as well.
Pittsburgh plays another dome game while facing a Falcons defense 30th in schedule adjusted efficiency despite facing a bottom 3rd schedule of offenses. Atlanta doesn’t generate pressure and the defensive line is 29th in adjusted line yards and 31st in adjusted sack rate. With the Steelers offense trending up it is tough envisioning Atlanta finding defensive success against an underrated cast of weapons that Pittsburgh brings to the table. In a game with two mobile quarterbacks capable of keeping plays alive, OVER 42 yields value. Seeing Pittsburgh flip to the favorite after being bet by professionals leads me to the Steelers Team Total OVER 20.5 (-116) too.
NFL Week 14 Look Ahead Lines
Las Vegas -6 at Los Angeles Rams
Minnesota -2.5 at Detroit
Buffalo -9 vs New York Giants
Baltimore -4 at Pittsburgh
Philadelphia -6 at New York Giants
Cincinnati -3.5 vs Cleveland
Tennessee -3.5 vs Jacksonville
Dallas -14.5 vs Houston
Miami -1.5 at Los Angeles Chargers
Seattle -6.5 vs Carolina
San Francisco -6.5 vs Tampa Bay
Kansas City -7.5 at Denver
New England -2 at Arizona
