We love this time of year in the NFL and really celebrate the parity we’re seeing this season. There is no “dominant” team, or any one specific unit on offense or defense that is immune to the dud. We continue to see great outings followed by absolute stinkers the next week creating opportunity. Trust me when I say when it comes to betting sides each week eventually you learn to embrace the ugly ducklings. As always we’ve also included Week 12 lookahead lines provided by FanDuel.
Houston Texans +10.5 (-110) @ Tennessee Titans:
Houston comes off of their bye with a chance to start fresh against the #1 seed in the AFC, the Tennessee Titans. The market opened Tennessee exactly where it was prior to their Week 10 victory over New Orleans at -10. Early money came in on Tennessee pushing this price out to -10.5 but on Tuesday there was a small appetite on the dog. A handful of books moved off the book although there are still some 10.5’s out there depending on where you shop.
Value in the Number
Similar to Detroit last week, it’s extremely difficult to find positive things to say about this Texans team. Sure they’ll be healthier now than they were a few weeks ago and maybe Tyrod Taylor looks like a dual threat QB we saw early in the season. In defense of the Texans they have faced the #1 schedule of opposing stop units this year. The defensive line has had relative success getting after the quarterback, ranking 10th in Pass Rush Win Rate and 10th in adjusted sack percentage. The Titans offensive line continues to fight off nagging injuries week after week dealing with an injury report littered with different names all season long.
Buy the Rumor, Sell the News
This current version of the Titans offense isn’t one that should be putting fear into opponents. They’re only 20th in offensive success rate and have struggled to move the football in back to back games without King Henry. WR Julio Jones is now on IR meaning the offense has one game breaking weapon in AJ Brown available. Houston is moving former S Lonnie Johnson (graded out worst in coverage on Houston via PFF) back to cornerback, his original position, and letting Eric Murray take over that safety role. The Texans do have pieces in the secondary with S Justin Reid and CB Desmond King. With two weeks to prepare I have enough faith in DC Lovie Smith to find a way to take Brown out of the game-plan here and force another option to beat them.
Professional bettors have gravitated toward the double digit dog in this divisional AFC South clash knowing points could be at a premium. Tennessee is going to have to do everything in their power to avoid a “let-down” spot here against a Houston team searching for their first victory since Week 1 knowing a date with the Patriots is on deck. The Texans at +10 or better is worth a wager in my opinion and I’d expect this to dip below the “10” come Sunday.
Week 12 NFL Look-Ahead Lines via FanDuel Sportsbook:
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Chicago -3.5 at Detroit
Las Vegas at Dallas -7
Buffalo -4.5 at New Orleans
Tennessee at New England -3
NY Jets -2.5 at Houston
Philadelphia -2.5 at NY Giants
Tampa Bay -3.5 at Indianapolis
Atlanta -1 at Jacksonville
Carolina -1.5 at Miami
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati -3.5
LA Chargers -2 at Denver
Minnesota at San Francisco -2.5
LA Rams at Green Bay -1.5
Cleveland at Baltimore -4.5
Seattle -3.5 at Washington