Some weeks we have major movement, others we maintain the status quo. This past weekend’s results didn’t require any adjustments to the top 3 despite Alabama’s loss to Texas A&M (yes, a loss doesn’t destroy a team’s power profile). Oklahoma climbs to #4 in our rankings in the wake of an improbable comeback and emergence of a new starting quarterback in Caleb Williams. Former #8 Oregon falls out of the Top 10 following their loss to Stanford while Ole Miss jumps into #10 with a tight win against Arkansas.
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There is a team hailing from the North Carolina trying to save face for the tarnished reputation of the ACC but are they as good as the pollsters and general public believe? We have a repeat offender making our underrated section that is once again not getting proper national respect.
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Without further adieu…
Bet the Board Top 10 Week 7:
1.) Georgia
2.) Alabama
3.) Ohio State
4.) Oklahoma
5.) Michigan
6.) Penn State
7.) Cincinnati
8.) Iowa
9.) Florida
10.) Ole Miss
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Overrated: Wake Forest Demon Deacons
The Demon Deacons are perfect in the Win/Loss columns after 6 weeks. The schedule of opponents thus far leaves a lot to be desired. Wake has faced a SOS outside the Top 60, including games against Old Dominion and Norfolk State to start off the year. They’ve only been an underdog in one game (at Virginia) and have failed to cover their last two games when favored by more than a field goal. Wake is a modest net +0.2 yards per play on the season with a vulnerable defense ranking 82nd in EPA per play allowed.
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No Relief in Sight
Wake’s defense is 90th in yards per carry allowed and it doesn’t get any easier after their bye with a road trip to Army looming. We don’t have Wake Forest anywhere near the Top 15 despite their current slot at #16 in the AP Poll. Let’s not forget, three weeks ago Florida state closed a 4-point underdog in Winston Salem after taking considerable professional money leading up to the game, and then outgained Wake by a +1.4 yards per play and had a 58% post game win expectancy. Racking up wins is great but in our business racking up covers and exceeding oddsmaker’s expectations is better.
Underrated: Texas Longhorns
If you were one of the folks holding a Texas +3.5 or better ticket last week you’re owed one! A 38-20 halftime lead with uncertainty at quarterback for the opponent should be a recipe for success. Not so fast, my friend! Despite an explosive, but not surprising, offensive outburst from Casey Thompson and Xavier Worthy, the Longhorn defense offered no resistance for the Sooners attack. This is precisely why Texas is once again sitting in our underrated section for the second time in 3 weeks.
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Rinse and Repeat
We touched on it then yet we’d be dead wrong not to reiterate now just how good this offense really is in Austin. Texas averages 7.0 yards per play behind an underrated QB talent paired alongside Bijan Robinson and the aforementioned Worthy (Jordan Whittington is expected to miss extended time for the Horns). This Steve Sarkisian offense is electric and ranked inside the Top 8 in most CFB efficiency ratings. They’ve played the 5th toughest strength of schedule and have a pretty big game this weekend against last week’s OVERRATED team, the Oklahoma State Cowboys. The betting market hasn’t moved too much from the opener of Texas -5 on this one and rightfully so. Saturday’s game against the Pokes won’t be as much about talent as it will be Texas getting up off the deck in the wake of the Red River meltdown last weekend.
